Matchup analysis
Our model projects Arizona 27, Utah 26 at Casino Del Sol Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Arizona wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.3 points and 53.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Utah (No. 6) is 7-0 against the 71st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 14.6 points per game (+22.8 per game). Arizona (No. 22) is 6-1 against the 82nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+19.4 per game).
Utah's strong offense (17th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) meets Arizona's strong defense (22nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Utah puts up. Arizona's strong offense (26th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.4 points against an average defense) meets Utah's strong defense (19th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Arizona puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah by 22 and Arizona by 23 about 80% of the time.
Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Utah would be favoured by 1.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Utah vs Arizona: stat comparison
| Stat | Utah | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.4#14 | 36.1#22 |
| Points allowed per game | 14.6#9 | 16.7#23 |
| Yards per play | 6.95#14 | 6.96#13 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.07#31 | 4.81#15 |
| Rushing yards per game | 225.9#14 | 154.9#93 |
| Net passing yards per game | 256.6#38 | 311.6#8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 101.9#4 | 127.4#33 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.7#90 | 187.7#43 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#78 | 1.00#80 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#35 | 0.43#124 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#80 | 2.71#19 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.43#45 | 2.43#107 |
| Stat | Utah | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#19 | +0.21#17 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#34 | -0.04#31 |
| Success rate | 50.5%#9 | 49.7%#12 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9%#12 | 35.0%#15 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5%#16 | 14.9%#24 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.5%#15 | 10.3%#30 |
| Havoc rate | 17.3%#12 | 13.6%#74 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3%#115 | 14.1%#93 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.82#18 | 4.68#29 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.17#15 | 2.69#1 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#38 | own 29#88 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#21 | own 28#39 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.4#32 | 67.0#61 |
| Stat | Utah | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#17 | +0.05#86 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.23#24 | +0.33#9 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#38 | -0.00#54 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#44 | -0.06#32 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.0%#19 | 47.5%#35 |
| Passing success rate | 52.0%#10 | 52.3%#9 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8%#126 | 17.4%#76 |
| Passing-down success rate | 41.7%#7 | 43.4%#5 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.6%#44 | 29.6%#67 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 54.0%#9 | 58.6%#2 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.7%#31 | 36.9%#50 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.4%#28 | 73.2%#19 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.1%#22 | 46.8%#20 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah schedule · Arizona schedule · all Week 11 projections
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