2026 schedule

Utah Utes

7-0SOS #64

2026 season so far

Utah (No. 6) is 7-0 against the 64th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 14.6 points per game (+22.8 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Utah ranks 15th of 139 FBS teams overall — 17th on offense and 19th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: at Cincinnati in Week 9. We project Utah 33, Cincinnati 24 — Utah wins 72% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Idaho Vandals
0-2 · SOS #7
Win 66-14
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Utah by 41.2
Total 57.2
DraftKings
UTAH -38.5
Total 60.5
Final Utah by 52. Utah beat the spread. 80 points — over the 60.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -38.5 (open Utah -32.5) · O/U 60.5 (open 56.5) · ML +5000 / -100000 · Utah 98% no-vig · model vs market +2.7 pts, +2 pct pts (Utah view)
ESPNU Rice-Eccles Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
vs
Arkansas Razorbacks
1-1 · SOS #8
Win 43-10
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Utah by 12.8
Total 61.8
DraftKings
UTAH -13.5
Total 55.5
Final Utah by 33. Utah beat the spread. 53 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -13 (open Utah -11.25) · O/U 55.5 (open 55.75) · ML +377.5 / -512.5 · Utah 80% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, 0 pct pts (Utah view)
ESPN Rice-Eccles Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed
vs
Utah State Aggies
0-3 · SOS #38
Win 33-0
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Utah by 11.4
Total 51.4
DraftKings
UTAH -26.5
Total 55.5
Final Utah by 33. Utah beat the spread. 33 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -26.25 (open Utah -27.75) · O/U 55.75 (open 57.25) · ML +1500 / -5750 · Utah 94% no-vig · model vs market -14.8 pts, -17 pct pts (Utah view)
Fox Rice-Eccles Stadium
at
Iowa State Cyclones
2-2 · SOS #29
Win 31-17
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Utah by 5.4
Total 53
DraftKings
UTAH -7.5
Total 46.5
Final Utah by 14. Utah beat the spread. 48 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -7.5 (open Utah -10) · O/U 46.75 (open 49.25) · ML -342.5 / +270 · Iowa State 26% no-vig · model vs market +2.1 pts, +10 pct pts (Iowa State view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 64°F, Wind 13 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAMW)
Fox Jack Trice Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
A. Flora RB · Low rush yds 82 (avg 109) · 75% · 54 ✓W. Parker RB · TD threat 72% · 3 ✓D. Dampier QB · Low pass yds 194 (avg 230) · 67% · 206 ✓
vs
Kansas Jayhawks
2-3 · SOS #62
Win 41-24
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Utah by 15.5
Total 54.9
DraftKings
UTAH -15.5
Total 49.5
Final Utah by 17. Utah beat the spread. 65 points — over the 49.5. Our number and the book's were equally close. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -15.75 (open Utah -15.5) · O/U 49.5 (open 51.75) · ML +500 / -725 · Utah 84% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, +1 pct pts (Utah view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSLC)
ESPN Rice-Eccles Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesHigh Scoring Alert: hit
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · I. Marshall QB · Low rush yds 42 (avg 59) · 75% · 21 ✓Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · D. Edwards RB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 74) · 75% · 22 ✓W. Parker RB · TD threat 81% · 2 ✓
at
Colorado Buffaloes
2-4 · SOS #21
Win 27-24
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Utah by 17.8
Total 50.8
DraftKings
UTAH -15.5
Total 49.5
Final Utah by 3. Colorado beat the spread. 51 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -15.25 (open Utah -16.5) · O/U 49.25 · ML -825 / +550 · Colorado 15% no-vig · model vs market -2.5 pts, -3 pct pts (Colorado view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 59°F, Wind 3 mph W.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBDU)
ESPN Folsom Field
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: missed
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded gamesAway team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: hit (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · M. Welch RB · Low rush yds 37 (avg 44) · 75% · 2 ✓Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Smith RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 37) · 75% · 73 ✗Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · I. Wilson QB · Low rush yds 15 (avg 10) · 75% · 41 ✗
vs
#14 Houston Cougars
6-2 · SOS #36
Win 21-13
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Utah by 6.1
Total 58.9
DraftKings
UTAH -6.5
Total 57.5
Final Utah by 8. Utah beat the spread. 34 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -6.5 · O/U 57.5 · ML +195 / -240 · Utah 68% no-vig · model vs market -0.4 pts, -2 pct pts (Utah view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 50°F, Wind 3 mph WNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSLC)
ESPN Rice-Eccles Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesHigh Scoring Alert: missed
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
W. Parker RB · TD threat 68% · 1 ✓
at
Cincinnati Bearcats
5-2 · SOS #41
Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM
Week 9
Proj 33-24 · 72%
Our number
Utah by 9
Total 57
DraftKings
UTAH -6.5
Total 56.5
We're 2.5 points higher on Utah than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -6.5 · O/U 56.75 · ML -250 / +205 · Cincinnati 32% no-vig · model vs market -2.5 pts, -3 pct pts (Cincinnati view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 69°F, Wind 6 mph E, 1% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN Nippert Stadium
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded games (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank Dog vs soft-D host, efficient offenses2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Away team points per game: top-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third: Record 16 hits, 12 misses (57% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 9-4) · Away team points per game: top-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third
W. Parker RB · TD threat 78%D. Dampier QB · High pass yds 254 (avg 231) · 53%
vs
#8 BYU Cougars
6-1 · SOS #34
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 27-26 · 54%
Our number
Utah by 1
Total 53
DraftKings
UTAH -3
Total 51.5
We're 2 points higher on BYU than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -3 · O/U 51.5 · ML +120 / -142 · Utah 56% no-vig · model vs market -2.0 pts, -3 pct pts (Utah view)
Rice-Eccles Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded games (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
Finishing big-yardage dog vs mid-total fav2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank
B. Bachmeier QB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 46) · 70%W. Parker RB · TD threat 68%
at
#22 Arizona Wildcats
6-1 · SOS #78
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 26-27 · 49%
Our number
Arizona by 1
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Casino Del Sol Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
W. Parker RB · TD threat 69%D. Dampier QB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 50) · 69%T. Powell TE · Low catches 3.2 (avg 4) · 67%
at
TCU Horned Frogs
3-4 · SOS #55
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 27-19 · 69%
Our number
Utah by 8
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Amon G. Carter Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
J. Dwyer WR · Low rec yds 80 (avg 121) · 74%K. Ashley TE · Low rec yds 52 (avg 73) · 73%W. Parker RB · TD threat 71%
vs
West Virginia Mountaineers
5-3 · SOS #56
Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 AM
Week 13
Proj 42-24 · 87%
Our number
Utah by 18
Total 66
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Fox Rice-Eccles Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · M. Hawkins Jr. QB · Low rush yds 77 (avg 105) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · C. Cook RB · Low rush yds 84 (avg 115) · 75%W. Parker RB · TD threat 83%

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Utah Utes stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+14.1

15th in FBS

Adj. offense

33.8

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

19.7

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	37.4	14 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	14.6	9 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.95	14 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.07	31 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	225.9	14 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	256.6	38 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	101.9	4 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	216.7	90 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.00	78 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.14	35 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.86	80 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.43	45 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.20	19 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.02	34 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	50.5%	9 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	34.9%	12 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	15.5%	16 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	9.5%	15 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	17.3%	12 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	15.3%	115 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.82	18 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.17	15 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 32	38 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 26	21 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	69.4	32 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.18	17 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.23	24 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.03	38 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	-0.01	44 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	49.0%	19 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	52.0%	10 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	21.8%	126 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	41.7%	7 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	27.6%	44 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	54.0%	9 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	34.7%	31 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	71.4%	28 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	47.1%	22 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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