Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Utah 34.3, Colorado 16.5 at Folsom Field in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Utah wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.8 points and 50.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Utah (No. 11) is 5-0, scoring 42.8 and allowing 13 points per game (+29.8 per game). Colorado is 2-3, scoring 18.6 and allowing 25.4 points per game (-6.8 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Utah's elite offense (13th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.3 points against an average defense) against Colorado's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th). Utah's strong defense (18th) should limit Colorado's below-average offense (99th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah by 40 and Colorado by 5 about 80% of the time.
Colorado gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Utah is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Utah 27, Colorado 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.8 points and the total by 0.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Utah / Colorado) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah -16.5 → Utah -15.25 | 49.25 | -825 / +550 |
| DraftKings | Utah -16.5 → Utah -15.5 | 49.5 | -800 / +550 |
| Bovada | Utah -16.5 → Utah -15 | 49 | -850 / +550 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Colorado win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah -18 | 50.7 | 12% |
| Market consensus | Utah -15 | 49.3 | 15% |
| Blended projection | Utah -16 | 50.2 | 14% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Colorado win probability
- model 12% · market (no-vig) 15% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Utah -17.8 · market Utah -15.25 · difference -2.6 pts (Colorado view)
- Total
- model 50.7 · market 49.25 · difference +1.5
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Utah than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Utah 34.3, Colorado 16.5 | Utah 88%right winner | 14.8 | 0.3 |
| New formula | Utah 32.9, Colorado 17.8 | Utah 84%right winner | 12.1 | 0.3 |
Final: Utah 27, Colorado 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Utah vs Colorado: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Utah | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.8#6 | 18.6#122 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.0#7 | 25.4#84 |
| Yards per play | 7.30#9 | 5.57#106 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.51#8 | 5.19#45 |
| Rushing yards per game | 241.6#9 | 159.2#80 |
| Net passing yards per game | 261.8#35 | 246.6#51 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 93.2#5 | 139.4#48 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 196.4#58 | 215.6#85 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.60#39 | 1.40#127 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#52 | 0.80#86 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#64 | 2.00#72 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.20#35 | 2.20#101 |
| Stat | Utah | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.22#19 | -0.03#118 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#45 | -0.04#27 |
| Success rate | 50.7%#10 | 40.8%#99 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.2%#14 | 37.4%#32 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.9%#28 | 13.6%#55 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.4%#16 | 12.6%#92 |
| Havoc rate | 17.5%#12 | 17.7%#11 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7%#59 | 13.0%#66 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.67#31 | 2.76#136 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.22#19 | 3.14#17 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#15 | own 26#132 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#28 | own 33#128 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#35 | 72.8#13 |
| Stat | Utah | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#25 | -0.07#125 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.27#28 | +0.01#100 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#42 | -0.16#2 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#52 | +0.07#82 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.0%#21 | 39.6%#110 |
| Passing success rate | 55.6%#3 | 41.9%#77 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.2%#120 | 14.5%#32 |
| Passing-down success rate | 42.0%#7 | 34.3%#43 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.2%#59 | 28.2%#60 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.0%#10 | 38.0%#95 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 29.6%#9 | 38.0%#72 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.8%#25 | 42.9%#131 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.1%#26 | 37.5%#6 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah schedule · Colorado schedule · all Week 7 projections
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