2026 schedule

Colorado Buffaloes

2-5SOS #21

2026 season so far

Colorado is 2-5 against the 21st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 30.1 points per game (-10 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Colorado ranks 91st of 139 FBS teams overall — 99th on offense and 79th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: vs Kansas State in Week 9. We project Colorado 24, Kansas State 30 — Colorado wins 34% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
0-1 · SOS #43
Win 14-13
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Georgia Tech by 9.9
Total 55.3
DraftKings
GT -6.5
Total 53.5
Final Colorado by 1. Colorado beat the spread. 27 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia Tech -6.5 (open Georgia Tech -7) · O/U 53 (open 51.5) · ML +217.5 / -264 · Georgia Tech 70% no-vig · model vs market +3.4 pts, +5 pct pts (Georgia Tech view)
ESPN Bobby Dodd Stadium
vs
Weber State Wildcats
1-2 · SOS #73
Win 52-21
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Colorado by 33
Total 55.6
DraftKings
COLO -38.5
Total 57.5
Final Colorado by 31. Weber State beat the spread. 73 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Colorado -38.5 (open Colorado -34) · O/U 57.5 (open 54.5) · ML +2000 / -6500 · Colorado 95% no-vig · model vs market -5.5 pts, +3 pct pts (Colorado view)
ESPN+ Folsom Field
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
Northwestern Wildcats
2-0 · SOS #44
Loss 7-41
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 4.4
Total 47.4
DraftKings
NU -3.5
Total 47.5
Final Northwestern by 34. Northwestern beat the spread. 48 points — over the 47.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northwestern -3.5 (open Northwestern -4.5) · O/U 47.75 (open 46.25) · ML +155 / -185 · Northwestern 62% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, -1 pct pts (Northwestern view)
Fox Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
at
Baylor Bears
3-1 · SOS #63
Loss 13-23
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Baylor by 8.9
Total 52.9
DraftKings
BAY -8.5
Total 54.5
Final Baylor by 10. Baylor beat the spread. 36 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Baylor -8.5 (open Baylor -9.25) · O/U 54.25 · ML +302.5 / -395 · Baylor 76% no-vig · model vs market +0.4 pts, -4 pct pts (Baylor view)
ESPN2 McLane Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
J. Williams WR · Low rec yds 51 (avg 78) · 77% · 127 ✗G. Freeman WR · Low catches 7 (avg 9.7) · 71% · 6 ✓M. Welch RB · Low rush yds 50 (avg 59) · 71% · 35 ✓
vs
#12 Texas Tech Red Raiders
5-0 · SOS #74
Loss 7-29
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Texas Tech by 14.7
Total 52.3
DraftKings
TTU -13.5
Total 50.5
Final Texas Tech by 22. Texas Tech beat the spread. 36 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas Tech -13.5 (open Texas Tech -14) · O/U 50 (open 50.25) · ML -587.5 / +420 · Colorado 18% no-vig · model vs market -1.2 pts, -2 pct pts (Colorado view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 7 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBDU)
Fox Folsom Field
Pregame calls · how each did
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · M. Welch RB · Low rush yds 48 (avg 53) · 75% · 5 ✓Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Smith RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 46) · 75% · 1 ✓J. Williams RB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 71) · 70% · 88 ✗
vs
#11 Utah Utes
6-0 · SOS #64
Loss 24-27
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Utah by 17.8
Total 50.8
DraftKings
UTAH -15.5
Total 49.5
Final Utah by 3. Colorado beat the spread. 51 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -15.25 (open Utah -16.5) · O/U 49.25 · ML -825 / +550 · Colorado 15% no-vig · model vs market -2.5 pts, -3 pct pts (Colorado view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 59°F, Wind 3 mph W.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBDU)
ESPN Folsom Field
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: missed
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded gamesAway team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: hit (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · M. Welch RB · Low rush yds 37 (avg 44) · 75% · 2 ✓Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Smith RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 37) · 75% · 73 ✗Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · I. Wilson QB · Low rush yds 15 (avg 10) · 75% · 41 ✗
at
Oklahoma State Cowboys
5-2 · SOS #60
Loss 24-57
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Oklahoma State by 5.4
Total 51
DraftKings
OKST -12.5
Total 55.5
Final Oklahoma State by 33. Oklahoma State beat the spread. 81 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oklahoma State -13.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML +425 / -575 · Oklahoma State 82% no-vig · model vs market -8.1 pts, -18 pct pts (Oklahoma State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 6 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSWO)
FS1 Boone Pickens Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 18 of 27 since week 3 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 1 of 6
Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded gamesAway team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: hit (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank TD-shy dog vs sloppy fav under2026 combo · Held up Under: Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnderdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: missed (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · M. Welch RB · Low rush yds 33 (avg 37) · 75% · did not playElite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Smith RB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 43) · 75% · 39 ✓I. Wilson QB · High pass yds 197 (avg 175) · 59% · 280 ✓
vs
Kansas State Wildcats
4-3 · SOS #83
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 24-30 · 34%
Our number
Kansas State by 6
Total 54
DraftKings
KSU -2.5
Total 47.5
We're 3.5 points higher on Kansas State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kansas State -2.5 · O/U 47.5 · ML -135 / +114 · Colorado 45% no-vig · model vs market -3.5 pts, -11 pct pts (Colorado view)
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 57°F, Wind 2 mph E, 5% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
TNT Folsom Field
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded games (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
I. Wilson QB · High pass yds 213 (avg 196) · 55%
at
Arizona State Sun Devils
4-3 · SOS #37
Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 23-29 · 33%
Our number
Arizona State by 6
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN2 Mountain America Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
I. Wilson QB · High pass yds 209 (avg 196) · 54%
vs
#18 Houston Cougars
6-2 · SOS #36
Sat, Nov 14, 3:15 AM
Week 11
Proj 20-32 · 21%
Our number
Houston by 12
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Folsom Field
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Smith RB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 43) · 75%Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · I. Wilson QB · Low rush yds 21 (avg 18) · 75%I. Wilson QB · High pass yds 211 (avg 196) · 55%
at
Cincinnati Bearcats
5-2 · SOS #41
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 23-32 · 26%
Our number
Cincinnati by 9
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Nippert Stadium
C. Tabb RB · TD threat 75%J. French IV QB · High pass yds 240 (avg 216) · 58%I. Wilson QB · High pass yds 219 (avg 196) · 57%
vs
UCF Knights
4-3 · SOS #35
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 22-29 · 33%
Our number
UCF by 7
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Folsom Field
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
K. Jenkins QB · High pass yds 213 (avg 157) · 73%I. Wilson QB · High pass yds 208 (avg 196) · 53%

Times shown in your local time

Colorado Buffaloes stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-4.3

90th in FBS

Adj. offense

23.5

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

27.8

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	20.1	121 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	30.1	112 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.04	64 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.63	71 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	144.6	103 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	267.6	26 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	150.7	66 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	249.9	121 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.57	134 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.86	75 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.29	52 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	2.14	94 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.02	103 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.02	59 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	40.6%	102 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	40.1%	61 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.9%	37 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	13.9%	114 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	18.0%	8 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	13.2%	68 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.41	117 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.65	52 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 26	132 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 33	133 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	68.3	45 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	-0.04	120 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.07	75 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.09	14 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.12	93 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	40.5%	101 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	40.8%	79 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	15.8%	45 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	32.4%	52 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	33.3%	115 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	39.8%	86 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	41.2%	97 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	55.0%	108 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	42.1%	10 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

Free weekly projections email

One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.