Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cincinnati 32, Colorado 23 at Nippert Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Cincinnati wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.6 points and 55.2 combined points.
Colorado is 2-5 against the 15th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 30.1 points per game (-10 per game). Cincinnati is 5-2 against the 50th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.4 and allowing 26.4 points per game (+9 per game).
Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack defense (66th) should limit Colorado's below-average offense (99th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack offense (42nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.8 points against an average defense) against Colorado's middle-of-the-pack defense (79th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado by 13 and Cincinnati by 32 about 80% of the time.
Cincinnati gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Cincinnati by about 7.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Colorado vs Cincinnati: stat comparison
| Stat | Colorado | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.1#121 | 35.4#31 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.1#112 | 26.4#95 |
| Yards per play | 6.04#64 | 7.09#10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.63#71 | 6.02#95 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.6#103 | 243.0#7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 267.6#26 | 220.9#75 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 150.7#66 | 148.6#64 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 249.9#121 | 275.6#133 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.57#134 | 0.43#16 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#75 | 1.29#20 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#52 | 2.43#38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#94 | 1.86#68 |
| Stat | Colorado | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#103 | +0.23#10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#59 | +0.15#119 |
| Success rate | 40.6%#102 | 46.7%#34 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1%#61 | 44.1%#104 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9%#37 | 14.6%#28 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9%#114 | 14.5%#125 |
| Havoc rate | 18.0%#8 | 13.4%#83 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#68 | 9.6%#8 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.41#117 | 4.96#12 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.65#52 | 4.30#108 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#132 | own 31#50 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#133 | own 25#3 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.3#45 | 65.4#72 |
| Stat | Colorado | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#120 | +0.21#8 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#75 | +0.24#23 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#14 | +0.14#123 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#93 | +0.15#101 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.5%#101 | 44.3%#72 |
| Passing success rate | 40.8%#79 | 49.5%#17 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8%#45 | 14.9%#31 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.4%#52 | 37.1%#20 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.3%#115 | 33.1%#111 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.8%#86 | 47.7%#24 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.2%#97 | 41.1%#95 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.0%#108 | 83.3%#3 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 42.1%#10 | 55.2%#47 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colorado schedule · Cincinnati schedule · all Week 12 projections
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