2026 schedule

Cincinnati Bearcats

5-2SOS #50

2026 season so far

Cincinnati is 5-2 against the 50th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.4 and allowing 26.4 points per game (+9 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Cincinnati ranks 53rd of 139 FBS teams overall — 42nd on offense and 66th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: vs Utah in Week 9. We project Cincinnati 24, Utah 33 — Cincinnati wins 28% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

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vs
Boston College Eagles
0-1 · SOS #91
Win 34-15
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Cincinnati by 8.2
Total 58.2
DraftKings
CIN -7
Total 51.5
Final Cincinnati by 19. Cincinnati beat the spread. 49 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Cincinnati -7 (open Cincinnati -9.5) · O/U 51.25 (open 54.5) · ML +222.5 / -274 · Cincinnati 70% no-vig · model vs market +1.2 pts, +0 pct pts (Cincinnati view)
Fox Nippert Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
vs
Western Carolina Catamounts
1-2 · SOS #27
Win 62-10
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Cincinnati by 32.3
Total 58.9
DraftKings
CIN -36.5
Total 61.5
Final Cincinnati by 52. Cincinnati beat the spread. 72 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Cincinnati -36.5 · O/U 61.5 (open 60.5) · model vs market -4.2 pts (Cincinnati view)
ESPN+ Nippert Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
vs
Miami (OH) RedHawks
1-2 · SOS #121
Win 35-31
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Cincinnati by 12.5
Total 59.9
DraftKings
CIN -14.5
Total 50.5
Final Cincinnati by 4. Miami (OH) beat the spread. 66 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Cincinnati -14.5 (open Cincinnati -15) · O/U 50.25 · ML +465 / -662.5 · Cincinnati 83% no-vig · model vs market -2.0 pts, -4 pct pts (Cincinnati view)
ESPN+ TQL Stadium
vs
Kansas State Wildcats
3-1 · SOS #90
Win 31-26
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Kansas State by 2.7
Total 58.5
DraftKings
KSU -6
Total 55.5
Final Cincinnati by 5. Cincinnati beat the spread. 57 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. Both totals were equally close.
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Market lines: Kansas State -6 (open Kansas State -6.25) · O/U 55.25 (open 53.25) · ML -239 / +197.5 · Cincinnati 32% no-vig · model vs market +3.3 pts, +11 pct pts (Cincinnati view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind 7 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCVG)
ESPN2 Nippert Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesHigh Scoring Alert: hit
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
A. Johnson QB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 84) · 81% · 38 ✓R. Fields Jr. RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 75) · 71% · 50 ✓J. Gibson WR · Low catches 4.3 (avg 5.3) · 68% · 2 ✓
at
Arizona Wildcats
4-1 · SOS #82
Loss 7-34
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Arizona by 9.5
Total 55.7
DraftKings
ARIZ -7
Total 56.5
Final Arizona by 27. Arizona beat the spread. 41 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Arizona -6.75 (open Arizona -7.75) · O/U 56 (open 54.75) · ML +227.5 / -277.5 · Arizona 71% no-vig · model vs market +2.8 pts, +3 pct pts (Arizona view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 11 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDMA)
Fox Casino Del Sol Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
C. Tabb RB · Low rush yds 54 (avg 78) · 75% · 19 ✓G. Payne RB · Low rush yds 65 (avg 92) · 74% · 24 ✓J. French IV QB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 41) · 72% · 29 ✓
at
West Virginia Mountaineers
4-3 · SOS #41
Loss 42-45
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Cincinnati by 2.4
Total 62.4
DraftKings
WVU -1.5
Total 64.5
Final West Virginia by 3. West Virginia beat the spread. 87 points — over the 64.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: West Virginia -1.5 · O/U 64 (open 61.75) · ML +101 / -121 · West Virginia 52% no-vig · model vs market -3.9 pts, -9 pct pts (West Virginia view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 52°F, Wind 10 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMGW)
TNT Milan Puskar Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
High-scoring pick'em dogStudy · Moderate Underdog wins: Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: Record 87 hits, 52 misses (63% hit rate) over 139 graded gamesSpread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: missed (n=139) · Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
C. Cook RB · TD threat 67% · 1 ✓J. French IV QB · High pass yds 228 (avg 190) · 63% · 389 ✓M. Hawkins Jr. QB · High pass yds 192 (avg 176) · 53% · 464 ✓
vs
#8 Texas Tech Red Raiders
6-1 · SOS #66
Win 37-24
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Texas Tech by 13.5
Total 58.7
DraftKings
TTU -10.5
Total 58.5
Final Cincinnati by 13. Cincinnati beat the spread. 61 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas Tech -10.5 · O/U 57.5 · ML -440 / +330 · Cincinnati 22% no-vig · model vs market -3.0 pts, -4 pct pts (Cincinnati view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 3 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLUK)
FS1 Nippert Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded gamesAway team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: missed (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank Dog vs soft-D host, efficient offenses2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Away team points per game: top-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third: Record 16 hits, 12 misses (57% hit rate) over 28 graded gamesAway team points per game: top-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third: hit (n=28; wk 5–7 9-4) · Away team points per game: top-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · J. French IV QB · Low rush yds 33 (avg 41) · 75% · 46 ✗Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · G. Payne RB · Low rush yds 57 (avg 70) · 75% · did not playElite 118-39 (typical 62%) · C. Tabb RB · Low rush yds 63 (avg 75) · 75% · 173 ✗
vs
#6 Utah Utes
7-0 · SOS #71
Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM
Week 9
Proj 24-33 · 28%
Our number
Utah by 9
Total 57
DraftKings
UTAH -6.5
Total 56.5
We're 2.5 points higher on Utah than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Utah -6.5 · O/U 56.75 · ML -250 / +205 · Cincinnati 32% no-vig · model vs market -2.5 pts, -3 pct pts (Cincinnati view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 69°F, Wind 6 mph E, 1% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN Nippert Stadium
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded games (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank Dog vs soft-D host, efficient offenses2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Away team points per game: top-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third: Record 16 hits, 12 misses (57% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 9-4) · Away team points per game: top-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third
W. Parker RB · TD threat 78%D. Dampier QB · High pass yds 254 (avg 231) · 53%
at
#18 Houston Cougars
6-2 · SOS #24
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 24-33 · 28%
Our number
Houston by 9
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
TDECU Stadium
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
C. Weigman QB · High pass yds 273 (avg 257) · 52%J. French IV QB · High pass yds 221 (avg 216) · 52%
at
Iowa State Cyclones
3-4 · SOS #32
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 28-27 · 52%
Our number
Cincinnati by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jack Trice Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
C. Jackson WR · Low rec yds 48 (avg 68) · 74%C. Tabb RB · TD threat 74%J. French IV QB · High pass yds 224 (avg 216) · 53%
vs
Colorado Buffaloes
2-5 · SOS #15
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 32-23 · 74%
Our number
Cincinnati by 9
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Nippert Stadium
C. Tabb RB · TD threat 75%J. French IV QB · High pass yds 240 (avg 216) · 58%I. Wilson QB · High pass yds 219 (avg 196) · 57%
at
#8 BYU Cougars
6-1 · SOS #38
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 21-35 · 18%
Our number
BYU by 14
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
LaVell Edwards Stadium
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · J. French IV QB · Low rush yds 32 (avg 42) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · C. Tabb RB · Low rush yds 71 (avg 89) · 75%B. Bachmeier QB · High pass yds 247 (avg 216) · 56%

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Cincinnati Bearcats stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+3.2

54th in FBS

Adj. offense

29.8

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

26.6

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	35.4	31 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	26.4	95 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	7.09	10 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.02	95 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	243.0	7 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	220.9	75 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	148.6	64 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	275.6	133 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.43	16 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.29	20 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.43	38 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.86	68 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.23	10 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.15	119 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	46.7%	34 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	44.1%	104 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	14.6%	28 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	14.5%	125 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	13.4%	83 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	9.6%	8 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.96	12 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.30	108 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 31	50 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 25	3 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	65.4	72 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.21	8 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.24	23 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.14	123 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.15	101 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	44.3%	72 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	49.5%	17 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	14.9%	31 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	37.1%	20 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	33.1%	111 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	47.7%	24 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	41.1%	95 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	83.3%	3 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	55.2%	47 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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