Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Cincinnati 45.6, Western Carolina 13.3 at Nippert Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Cincinnati wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 32.3 points and 58.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Western Carolina is 1-1, scoring 32 and allowing 24.5 points per game (+7.5 per game). Cincinnati is 1-0, scoring 34 and allowing 15 points per game (+19 per game).
Western Carolina plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Cincinnati's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cincinnati by 10 and Cincinnati by 55 about 80% of the time.
Cincinnati gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Cincinnati by about 30.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Western Carolina 10, Cincinnati 62. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.7 points and the total by 13.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Carolina / Cincinnati) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Cincinnati -36.5 | 60.5 → 61.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Cincinnati -36.5 | 60.5 → 61.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Cincinnati -36.5 | 60.5 → 61.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Cincinnati win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Cincinnati -32.5 | 58.9 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Cincinnati -36.5 | 61.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Cincinnati -36 | 61.3 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Cincinnati win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Cincinnati -32.3 · market Cincinnati -36.5 · difference -4.2 pts (Cincinnati view)
- Total
- model 58.9 · market 61.5 · difference -2.6
Model margin is 4.2 pts more toward Western Carolina than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Carolina 13.3, Cincinnati 45.6 | Cincinnati 98%right winner | 19.7 | 13.1 |
| New formula | Western Carolina 18.1, Cincinnati 41.6 | Cincinnati 92%right winner | 28.5 | 12.3 |
Final: Western Carolina 10, Cincinnati 62. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Carolina vs Cincinnati: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Western Carolina | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.6 | 30.3#43 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.5 | 25.6#74 |
| Yards per play | 6.40 | 7.06#10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.50 | 5.77#64 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.8 | 180.2#55 |
| Net passing yards per game | 326.0 | 234.7#57 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 207.6 | 188.8#107 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 279.2 | 218.1#68 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.09 | 0.69#11 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.55 | 0.54#129 |
| Sacks per game | 1.91 | 1.62#98 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.27 | 0.62#2 |
| Stat | Western Carolina | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.20#4 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.09#117 |
| Success rate | 45.1% | 46.8%#20 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.8% | 44.9%#111 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8% | 15.3%#10 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 11.5%#47 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 9.7%#128 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6% | 9.4%#8 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.57 | 4.77#10 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.67 | 3.99#85 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | own 29#89 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | own 27#19 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.1 | 58.8#132 |
| Stat | Western Carolina | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.15#11 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.25#6 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.06#104 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20 | +0.14#112 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8% | 48.3%#16 |
| Passing success rate | 47.9% | 45.3%#28 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2% | 15.3%#24 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2% | 32.7%#39 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.8% | 32.2%#102 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.9% | 39.3%#89 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.0% | 41.3%#78 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.4% | 75.0%#6 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 35.9% | 54.3%#29 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Carolina schedule · Cincinnati schedule · all Week 2 projections
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