Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kansas State 30.6, Cincinnati 27.9 at Nippert Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Kansas State wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 58.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Kansas State is 3-0, scoring 45.3 and allowing 10 points per game (+35.3 per game). Cincinnati is 3-0, scoring 43.7 and allowing 18.7 points per game (+25 per game).
Kansas State's strong offense (24th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack defense (70th); that mismatch is where most of Kansas State's projected points come from. Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack offense (51st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.7 points against an average defense) meets Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack defense (51st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cincinnati puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kansas State by 25 and Cincinnati by 20 about 80% of the time.
Cincinnati gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Kansas State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Kansas State 26, Cincinnati 31. Cincinnati won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 7.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kansas State / Cincinnati) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kansas State -6.25 → Kansas State -6 | 53.25 → 55.25 | -239 / +197.5 |
| DraftKings | Kansas State -6 | 52.5 → 55.5 | -238 / +195 |
| Bovada | Kansas State -6.5 → Kansas State -6 | 54 → 55 | -240 / +200 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Cincinnati win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kansas State -2.5 | 58.5 | 43% |
| Market consensus | Kansas State -6 | 55.3 | 32% |
| Blended projection | Kansas State -5.5 | 55.8 | 35% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Cincinnati win probability
- model 43% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model Kansas State -2.7 · market Kansas State -6 · difference +3.3 pts (Cincinnati view)
- Total
- model 58.5 · market 55.25 · difference +3.3
Model margin is 3.3 pts more toward Cincinnati than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kansas State 30.6, Cincinnati 27.9 | Kansas State 57%wrong winner | 7.7 | 1.5 |
| New formula | Kansas State 31.2, Cincinnati 28.1 | Kansas State 58%wrong winner | 8.1 | 2.3 |
Final: Kansas State 26, Cincinnati 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kansas State vs Cincinnati: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Kansas State | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 45.3#15 | 43.7#20 |
| Points allowed per game | 10.0#11 | 18.7#51 |
| Yards per play | 7.52#15 | 6.87#40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 3.44#2 | 6.00#103 |
| Rushing yards per game | 272.7#9 | 273.7#8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.0#51 | 216.3#83 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 120.3#43 | 113.7#37 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 66.7#1 | 250.3#117 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#52 | 0.33#20 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33#117 | 1.67#17 |
| Sacks per game | 3.67#7 | 2.33#37 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.00#1 | 1.33#60 |
| Stat | Kansas State | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#52 | +0.12#61 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03#38 | +0.08#93 |
| Success rate | 44.3%#64 | 44.3%#65 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5%#51 | 43.7%#106 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#80 | 11.8%#98 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4%#88 | 13.2%#101 |
| Havoc rate | 15.1%#50 | 14.0%#69 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#86 | 11.4%#36 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.64#37 | 4.30#65 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.39#107 | 3.94#72 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#43 | own 34#31 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#24 | own 25#21 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.3#38 | 71.3#26 |
| Stat | Kansas State | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#66 | +0.16#31 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19#52 | +0.09#77 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00#63 | +0.14#114 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#40 | +0.03#75 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.0%#28 | 47.5%#47 |
| Passing success rate | 51.4%#27 | 54.8%#16 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3%#92 | 15.6%#54 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.2%#29 | 30.6%#80 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.1%#96 | 31.6%#92 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 67.4%#1 | 50.0%#27 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.2%#28 | 30.6%#29 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.8%#54 | 70.9%#40 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.7%#89 | 57.2%#63 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kansas State schedule · Cincinnati schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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