Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Cincinnati 32.4, West Virginia 30 at Milan Puskar Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Cincinnati wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 62.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Cincinnati is 4-1, scoring 33.8 and allowing 23.2 points per game (+10.6 per game). West Virginia is 3-3, scoring 36.3 and allowing 32.7 points per game (+3.6 per game).
Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack offense (60th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over West Virginia's struggling defense (122nd); that mismatch is where most of Cincinnati's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: West Virginia's middle-of-the-pack offense (44th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.9 points against an average defense) against Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack defense (71st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cincinnati by 25 and West Virginia by 20 about 80% of the time.
West Virginia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Cincinnati is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on TNT.
Result: Cincinnati 42, West Virginia 45. West Virginia won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 5.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Cincinnati / West Virginia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | West Virginia -1.5 | 61.75 → 64 | +101 / -121 |
| DraftKings | West Virginia -1.5 | 61.5 → 64.5 | +102 / -122 |
| Bovada | West Virginia -1.5 | 62 → 63.5 | +100 / -120 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | West Virginia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Cincinnati -2.5 | 62.4 | 44% |
| Market consensus | West Virginia -1.5 | 64.0 | 52% |
| Blended projection | West Virginia -1 | 63.6 | 52% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- West Virginia win probability
- model 44% · market (no-vig) 52% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Cincinnati -2.4 · market West Virginia -1.5 · difference -3.9 pts (West Virginia view)
- Total
- model 62.4 · market 64 · difference -1.6
Model margin is 3.9 pts more toward Cincinnati than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Cincinnati 32.4, West Virginia 30.0 | Cincinnati 56%wrong winner | 5.4 | 24.6 |
| New formula | Cincinnati 33.4, West Virginia 31.0 | Cincinnati 56%wrong winner | 5.4 | 22.6 |
Final: Cincinnati 42, West Virginia 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Cincinnati vs West Virginia: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Cincinnati | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.8#49 | 36.3#32 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.2#66 | 32.7#124 |
| Yards per play | 6.70#32 | 6.43#51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.87#91 | 6.99#133 |
| Rushing yards per game | 239.8#11 | 305.3#4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.0#101 | 183.2#108 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 136.6#45 | 178.2#104 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 261.4#125 | 284.3#135 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.20#9 | 0.50#31 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.40#18 | 1.00#53 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#66 | 2.17#53 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.60#59 | 1.50#52 |
| Stat | Cincinnati | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#25 | +0.17#32 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#106 | +0.21#129 |
| Success rate | 45.3%#50 | 43.5%#65 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3%#106 | 46.4%#124 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2%#61 | 13.7%#49 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0%#99 | 16.1%#132 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#108 | 15.3%#33 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.0%#5 | 12.3%#52 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.73#24 | 4.75#23 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.18#98 | 3.88#75 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#42 | own 31#51 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#5 | own 28#53 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.0#87 | 76.0#5 |
| Stat | Cincinnati | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.22#11 | +0.20#15 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19#40 | +0.10#70 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15#123 | +0.08#94 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#81 | +0.34#133 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.2%#86 | 46.9%#48 |
| Passing success rate | 48.0%#32 | 35.0%#124 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.7%#25 | 14.2%#29 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.1%#57 | 33.9%#48 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.7%#122 | 30.6%#85 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.6%#34 | 52.7%#12 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.8%#117 | 36.6%#57 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 80.4%#5 | 60.0%#88 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.4%#44 | 55.6%#54 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Cincinnati schedule · West Virginia schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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