Matchup analysis
Our model projects Utah 33, Cincinnati 24 at Nippert Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Utah wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.8 points and 57.4 combined points.
Utah (No. 6) is 7-0 against the 64th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 14.6 points per game (+22.8 per game). Cincinnati is 5-2 against the 41st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.4 and allowing 26.4 points per game (+9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Utah's strong offense (17th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) against Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack defense (66th). Utah's strong defense (19th) should limit Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack offense (42nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah by 31 and Cincinnati by 14 about 80% of the time.
Cincinnati gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Utah is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Utah / Cincinnati) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah -6.5 | 56.75 | -250 / +205 |
| DraftKings | Utah -6.5 | 56.5 | -258 / +210 |
| FanDuel | Utah -6.5 | 56.5 | -265 / +215 |
| BetRivers | Utah -6.5 | 57.5 | -250 / +195 |
| theScore Bet | Utah -6.5 | 55.5 | -230 / +195 |
| BetMGM | Utah -6.5 | 56.5 | -235 / +200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Utah -6.5 | 57.5 | -250 / +200 |
| Pinnacle | Utah -6.5 | 57.5 | -253 / +210 |
| Bovada | Utah -6.5 | 57 | -250 / +210 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Cincinnati win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah -9 | 57.4 | 28% |
| Market consensus | Utah -6.5 | 56.8 | 32% |
| Blended projection | Utah -7 | 57.1 | 32% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Cincinnati win probability
- model 28% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Utah -8.8 · market Utah -6.5 · difference -2.3 pts (Cincinnati view)
- Total
- model 57.4 · market 56.75 · difference +0.6
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Cincinnati 31%.
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Utah than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Utah vs Cincinnati: stat comparison
| Stat | Utah | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.4#14 | 35.4#31 |
| Points allowed per game | 14.6#9 | 26.4#95 |
| Yards per play | 6.95#14 | 7.09#10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.07#31 | 6.02#95 |
| Rushing yards per game | 225.9#14 | 243.0#7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 256.6#38 | 220.9#75 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 101.9#4 | 148.6#64 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.7#90 | 275.6#133 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#78 | 0.43#16 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#35 | 1.29#20 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#80 | 2.43#38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.43#45 | 1.86#68 |
| Stat | Utah | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#19 | +0.23#10 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#34 | +0.15#119 |
| Success rate | 50.5%#9 | 46.7%#34 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9%#12 | 44.1%#104 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5%#16 | 14.6%#28 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.5%#15 | 14.5%#125 |
| Havoc rate | 17.3%#12 | 13.4%#83 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3%#115 | 9.6%#8 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.82#18 | 4.96#12 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.17#15 | 4.30#108 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#38 | own 31#50 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#21 | own 25#3 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.4#32 | 65.4#72 |
| Stat | Utah | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#17 | +0.21#8 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.23#24 | +0.24#23 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#38 | +0.14#123 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#44 | +0.15#101 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.0%#19 | 44.3%#72 |
| Passing success rate | 52.0%#10 | 49.5%#17 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8%#126 | 14.9%#31 |
| Passing-down success rate | 41.7%#7 | 37.1%#20 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.6%#44 | 33.1%#111 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 54.0%#9 | 47.7%#24 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.7%#31 | 41.1%#95 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.4%#28 | 83.3%#3 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.1%#22 | 55.2%#47 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah schedule · Cincinnati schedule · all Week 9 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.