Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cincinnati 28, Iowa State 27 at Jack Trice Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Cincinnati wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 54.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Cincinnati is 5-2 against the 41st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.4 and allowing 26.4 points per game (+9 per game). Iowa State is 3-4 against the 29th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.9 and allowing 24.1 points per game (+1.8 per game).
Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack offense (42nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.8 points against an average defense) meets Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack defense (56th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cincinnati puts up. Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack offense (77th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) meets Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack defense (66th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Iowa State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cincinnati by 23 and Iowa State by 22 about 80% of the time.
Iowa State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Cincinnati is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Cincinnati vs Iowa State: stat comparison
| Stat | Cincinnati | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.4#31 | 25.9#90 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4#95 | 24.1#70 |
| Yards per play | 7.09#10 | 5.65#99 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.02#95 | 6.17#107 |
| Rushing yards per game | 243.0#7 | 174.1#60 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.9#75 | 169.4#122 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.6#64 | 166.4#91 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 275.6#133 | 212.9#84 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#16 | 0.43#17 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#20 | 0.71#90 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#38 | 1.43#110 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#68 | 1.71#59 |
| Stat | Cincinnati | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#10 | +0.08#71 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15#119 | +0.07#84 |
| Success rate | 46.7%#34 | 38.7%#121 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1%#104 | 42.4%#83 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.6%#28 | 13.2%#58 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5%#125 | 11.9%#73 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#83 | 12.9%#98 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.6%#8 | 17.0%#133 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.96#12 | 4.21#53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.30#108 | 3.80#67 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#50 | own 27#124 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#3 | own 30#89 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.4#72 | 60.9#116 |
| Stat | Cincinnati | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21#8 | +0.08#65 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.24#23 | +0.08#73 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#123 | +0.03#63 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#101 | +0.12#94 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.3%#72 | 38.9%#114 |
| Passing success rate | 49.5%#17 | 38.4%#107 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.9%#31 | 20.9%#122 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.1%#20 | 28.0%#104 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1%#111 | 25.9%#23 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.7%#24 | 30.5%#134 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.1%#95 | 36.0%#41 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 83.3%#3 | 66.7%#41 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.2%#47 | 65.0%#94 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Cincinnati schedule · Iowa State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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