Matchup analysis
Our model projects BYU 35, Cincinnati 21 at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: BYU wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.8 points and 55.7 combined points.
Cincinnati is 5-2 against the 41st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.4 and allowing 26.4 points per game (+9 per game). BYU (No. 8) is 6-1 against the 34th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.1 and allowing 18.6 points per game (+14.5 per game).
BYU's strong defense (15th) should limit Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack offense (42nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: BYU's strong offense (18th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) against Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack defense (66th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cincinnati by 9 and BYU by 36 about 80% of the time.
BYU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour BYU by about 11.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Cincinnati vs BYU: stat comparison
| Stat | Cincinnati | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.4#31 | 33.1#40 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4#95 | 18.6#26 |
| Yards per play | 7.09#10 | 6.71#23 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.02#95 | 4.87#18 |
| Rushing yards per game | 243.0#7 | 197.6#35 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.9#75 | 223.1#70 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.6#64 | 110.7#13 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 275.6#133 | 204.6#64 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#16 | 0.57#30 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#20 | 0.86#68 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#38 | 1.71#95 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#68 | 0.57#5 |
| Stat | Cincinnati | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#10 | +0.16#38 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15#119 | +0.01#48 |
| Success rate | 46.7%#34 | 48.6%#20 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1%#104 | 38.3%#34 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.6%#28 | 13.1%#61 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5%#125 | 9.1%#10 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#83 | 14.5%#63 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.6%#8 | 9.8%#9 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.96#12 | 5.02#10 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.30#108 | 3.94#84 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#50 | own 30#61 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#3 | own 29#66 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.4#72 | 62.7#100 |
| Stat | Cincinnati | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21#8 | +0.11#51 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.24#23 | +0.22#28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#123 | +0.04#75 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#101 | -0.02#39 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.3%#72 | 49.3%#17 |
| Passing success rate | 49.5%#17 | 47.8%#26 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.9%#31 | 15.8%#43 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.1%#20 | 31.4%#64 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1%#111 | 30.7%#79 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.7%#24 | 55.8%#4 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.1%#95 | 42.0%#101 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 83.3%#3 | 76.7%#8 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.2%#47 | 66.7%#102 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Cincinnati schedule · BYU schedule · all Week 13 projections
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