Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Cincinnati 36.2, Miami (OH) 23.7 at TQL Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Cincinnati wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.5 points and 59.9 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Miami (OH) is 1-1, scoring 29.5 and allowing 33 points per game (-3.5 per game). Cincinnati is 2-0, scoring 48 and allowing 12.5 points per game (+35.5 per game).
Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack defense (56th) should limit Miami (OH)'s below-average offense (95th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Cincinnati's strong offense (40th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.2 points against an average defense) against Miami (OH)'s below-average defense (102nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami (OH) by 10 and Cincinnati by 35 about 80% of the time.
Cincinnati gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Cincinnati by about 10.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Miami (OH) 31, Cincinnati 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.5 points and the total by 6.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Miami (OH) / Cincinnati) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Cincinnati -15 → Cincinnati -14.5 | 50.25 | +465 / -662.5 |
| DraftKings | Cincinnati -15.5 → Cincinnati -14.5 | 49.5 → 50.5 | +470 / -650 |
| Bovada | Cincinnati -14.5 | 51 → 50 | +460 / -675 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Cincinnati win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Cincinnati -12.5 | 59.9 | 79% |
| Market consensus | Cincinnati -14.5 | 50.3 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Cincinnati -14.5 | 51.6 | 83% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Cincinnati win probability
- model 79% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Cincinnati -12.5 · market Cincinnati -14.5 · difference -2.0 pts (Cincinnati view)
- Total
- model 59.9 · market 50.25 · difference +9.6
Model margin is 2.0 pts more toward Miami (OH) than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Miami (OH) 23.7, Cincinnati 36.2 | Cincinnati 79%right winner | 8.5 | 6.1 |
| New formula | Miami (OH) 19.9, Cincinnati 35.7 | Cincinnati 84%right winner | 11.8 | 10.4 |
Final: Miami (OH) 31, Cincinnati 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.5#80 | 48.0#19 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.0#124 | 12.5#30 |
| Yards per play | 6.43#63 | 7.38#25 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.95#126 | 4.89#47 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.0#115 | 333.5#4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.0#69 | 175.5#107 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 107.5#45 | 128.5#69 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 306.0#134 | 184.5#58 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#69 | 0.00#5 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#137 | 1.50#28 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#121 | 2.00#61 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#58 | 0.50#14 |
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.28#9 | +0.16#35 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17#125 | +0.05#84 |
| Success rate | 47.5%#29 | 44.8%#54 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.3%#82 | 44.4%#110 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.6%#9 | 13.2%#62 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#58 | 11.1%#60 |
| Havoc rate | 12.5%#101 | 13.1%#87 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.0%#10 | 10.7%#27 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.38#10 | 4.61#37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.61#114 | 3.93#77 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#106 | own 35#26 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#48 | own 23#9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 55.5#123 | 69.0#41 |
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#83 | +0.17#25 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.45#6 | +0.16#50 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#84 | +0.18#125 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.24#120 | -0.05#41 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.2%#63 | 46.5%#60 |
| Passing success rate | 53.7%#24 | 60.5%#10 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1%#85 | 14.5%#32 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8%#77 | 33.3%#52 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4%#93 | 32.2%#98 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.9%#77 | 54.5%#22 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.6%#121 | 24.0%#16 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.9%#39 | 70.2%#44 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.5%#103 | 53.0%#55 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Miami (OH) schedule · Cincinnati schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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