2026 schedule
Miami (OH) RedHawks
2026 season so far
Miami (OH) is 5-3 against the 117th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 25.8 points per game (+1.2 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Miami (OH) ranks 98th of 139 FBS teams overall — 103rd on offense and 92nd on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: vs Buffalo in Week 10. We project Miami (OH) 29, Buffalo 21 — Miami (OH) wins 71% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Pittsburgh Panthers
1-0 · SOS #53
Loss 14-59
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 10.1
Total 54.5
DraftKings
PITT -16.5
Total 47.5
Final Pittsburgh by 45. Pittsburgh beat the spread. 73 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Pittsburgh -16.25 (open Pittsburgh -16.5) · O/U 47.25 (open 50.5) · ML +550 / -825 · Pittsburgh 85% no-vig · model vs market -6.2 pts, -11 pct pts (Pittsburgh view)
CW Acrisure Stadium - vs
Holy Cross Crusaders
0-3 · SOS #69
Win 45-7
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Miami (OH) by 34.5
Total 47.1
DraftKings
M-OH -30.5
Total 46.5
Final Miami (OH) by 38. Miami (OH) beat the spread. 52 points — over the 46.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami (OH) -30.5 · O/U 46.75 (open 49.75) · ML +2000 / -6500 · Miami (OH) 95% no-vig · model vs market +4.0 pts, +3 pct pts (Miami (OH) view)
ESPN+ Yager Stadium - at
Cincinnati Bearcats
3-0 · SOS #41
Loss 31-35
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Cincinnati by 12.5
Total 59.9
DraftKings
CIN -14.5
Total 50.5
Final Cincinnati by 4. Miami (OH) beat the spread. 66 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Cincinnati -14.5 (open Cincinnati -15) · O/U 50.25 · ML +465 / -662.5 · Cincinnati 83% no-vig · model vs market -2.0 pts, -4 pct pts (Cincinnati view)
ESPN+ TQL Stadium - vs
UConn Huskies
2-2 · SOS #132
Win 24-21
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Miami (OH) by 2.4
Total 57.2
DraftKings
M-OH -2.5
Total 52.5
Final Miami (OH) by 3. Miami (OH) beat the spread. 45 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami (OH) -2.5 (open Miami (OH) -3.75) · O/U 52.25 (open 50.75) · ML +142 / -167.5 · Miami (OH) 60% no-vig · model vs market -0.1 pts, -4 pct pts (Miami (OH) view)
ESPN+ Yager Stadium - vs
Bowling Green Falcons
1-4 · SOS #92
Loss 20-24
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Miami (OH) by 14
Total 47.2
DraftKings
M-OH -10.5
Total 41.5
Final Bowling Green by 4. Bowling Green beat the spread. 44 points — over the 41.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami (OH) -11.25 (open Miami (OH) -15.25) · O/U 42.25 (open 48.75) · ML +410 / -572.5 · Miami (OH) 81% no-vig · model vs market +2.8 pts, +1 pct pts (Miami (OH) view)
ESPN+ Yager Stadium - at
Massachusetts Minutemen
4-2 · SOS #138
Win 20-19
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Miami (OH) by 4.7
Total 52.1
DraftKings
M-OH -6
Total 44.5
Final Miami (OH) by 1. Massachusetts beat the spread. 39 points — under the 44.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami (OH) -6 (open Miami (OH) -2.5) · O/U 44.5 (open 47.25) · ML -180 / +150 · Massachusetts 39% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, -1 pct pts (Massachusetts view)
ESPN+ Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - vs
Akron Zips
1-6 · SOS #109
Win 34-14
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Miami (OH) by 12.5
Total 52.5
DraftKings
M-OH -9.5
Total 47.5
Final Miami (OH) by 20. Miami (OH) beat the spread. 48 points — over the 47.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami (OH) -9.5 (open Miami (OH) -9.75) · O/U 47 (open 46.75) · ML +292.5 / -382.5 · Miami (OH) 76% no-vig · model vs market +3.0 pts, +4 pct pts (Miami (OH) view)
ESPN+ Yager Stadium - at
Central Michigan Chippewas
3-5 · SOS #71
Win 28-27
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Miami (OH) by 1.4
Total 44.2
DraftKings
M-OH -3.5
Total 41.5
Final Miami (OH) by 1. Central Michigan beat the spread. 55 points — over the 41.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami (OH) -3.5 · O/U 40.5 · ML -170 / +140 · Central Michigan 42% no-vig · model vs market +2.1 pts, +4 pct pts (Central Michigan view)
ESPN+ Kelly/Shorts Stadium - vs
Buffalo Bulls
5-3 · SOS #127
Wed, Nov 4, 1:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 29-21 · 71%
Our number
Miami (OH) by 8
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Yager Stadium - vs
Ohio Bobcats
6-2 · SOS #135
Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 23-26 · 42%
Our number
Ohio by 3
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Yager Stadium - at
Kent State Golden Flashes
3-5 · SOS #68
Wed, Nov 18, 12:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 29-20 · 73%
Our number
Miami (OH) by 9
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium - at
Western Michigan Broncos
5-3 · SOS #91
Tue, Nov 24 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 20-29 · 26%
Our number
Western Michigan by 9
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Waldo Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Miami (OH) RedHawks stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-7.3
97th in FBS
Adj. offense
22.0
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
29.3
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 27.0 | 80 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 25.8 | 88 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.51 | 33 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.94 | 90 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 157.1 | 88 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 218.8 | 77 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 108.0 | 11 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 267.6 | 131 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.75 | 55 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | 65 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | 75 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.50 | 115 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.10 | 60 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.06 | 78 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.5% | 104 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 40.7% | 68 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 14.7% | 27 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 9.4% | 14 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.3% | 88 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.1% | 96 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.97 | 84 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.95 | 86 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 32 | 26 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 26 | 19 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 57.8 | 135 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.06 | 80 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.13 | 55 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.04 | 34 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.14 | 98 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 42.0% | 91 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 39.9% | 91 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.3% | 88 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.4% | 80 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 32.9% | 110 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 37.0% | 100 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 42.9% | 110 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 55.2% | 105 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 62.9% | 88 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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