Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Miami (OH) 30.6, Bowling Green 16.6 at Yager Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Miami (OH) wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14 points and 47.1 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Bowling Green is 0-4, scoring 8.3 and allowing 36.3 points per game (-28 per game). Miami (OH) is 2-2, scoring 28.5 and allowing 30.5 points per game (-2 per game).
Miami (OH)'s below-average defense (97th) should limit Bowling Green's struggling offense (138th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 13.3 points against an average defense). Miami (OH)'s below-average offense (100th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.2 points against an average defense) meets Bowling Green's below-average defense (109th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Miami (OH) puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bowling Green by 9 and Miami (OH) by 37 about 80% of the time.
Miami (OH) gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Miami (OH) by about 11.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20. Bowling Green won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 18 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Bowling Green / Miami (OH)) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami (OH) -15.25 → Miami (OH) -11.25 | 48.75 → 42.25 | +410 / -572.5 |
| Bovada | Miami (OH) -15 → Miami (OH) -12 | 47 → 43 | +460 / -675 |
| DraftKings | Miami (OH) -15.5 → Miami (OH) -10.5 | 50.5 → 41.5 | +360 / -470 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Miami (OH) win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami (OH) -14 | 47.1 | 82% |
| Market consensus | Miami (OH) -11.5 | 42.3 | 81% |
| Blended projection | Miami (OH) -12 | 43.9 | 79% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Miami (OH) win probability
- model 82% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Miami (OH) -14 · market Miami (OH) -11.25 · difference +2.8 pts (Miami (OH) view)
- Total
- model 47.1 · market 42.25 · difference +4.9
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Miami (OH) than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bowling Green 16.6, Miami (OH) 30.6 | Miami (OH) 82%wrong winner | 18.0 | 3.1 |
| New formula | Bowling Green 16.3, Miami (OH) 29.0 | Miami (OH) 80%wrong winner | 16.7 | 1.2 |
Final: Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bowling Green vs Miami (OH): stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 8.3#138 | 28.5#81 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.3#132 | 30.5#118 |
| Yards per play | 4.36#138 | 7.05#23 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.28#135 | 6.45#121 |
| Rushing yards per game | 94.0#138 | 108.0#134 |
| Net passing yards per game | 147.8#129 | 290.5#23 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 270.8#138 | 131.3#54 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 158.5#26 | 279.8#133 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#66 | 0.75#73 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#63 | 0.75#101 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#53 | 1.75#87 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#33 | 1.50#67 |
| Stat | Bowling Green | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.19#138 | +0.29#8 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14#112 | +0.17#119 |
| Success rate | 33.5%#134 | 44.0%#64 |
| Success rate allowed | 50.0%#135 | 43.7%#104 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.5%#136 | 18.7%#3 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.4%#127 | 8.8%#10 |
| Havoc rate | 12.8%#95 | 10.7%#129 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.5%#128 | 12.1%#56 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.17#137 | 4.25#61 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.29#101 | 4.65#124 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#94 | own 29#85 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#92 | own 27#48 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 55.5#135 | 56.5#133 |
| Stat | Bowling Green | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.33#138 | -0.13#133 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04#113 | +0.59#2 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.25#132 | +0.13#113 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#53 | +0.19#110 |
| Rushing success rate | 28.6%#138 | 37.7%#116 |
| Passing success rate | 38.8%#101 | 48.6%#34 |
| Run stuff rate | 25.4%#136 | 20.4%#113 |
| Passing-down success rate | 16.7%#137 | 30.4%#78 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.5%#38 | 31.2%#88 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.4%#129 | 41.3%#75 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.1%#58 | 43.8%#112 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.0%#118 | 61.5%#84 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.3%#92 | 90.0%#136 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bowling Green schedule · Miami (OH) schedule · all Week 5 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.