2026 schedule
Bowling Green Falcons
2026 season so far
Bowling Green is 2-6 against the 92nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.8 and allowing 29.8 points per game (-11 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Bowling Green ranks 128th of 139 FBS teams overall — 134th on offense and 106th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: at Western Michigan in Week 9. We project Bowling Green 14, Western Michigan 31 — Bowling Green wins 13% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
Tarleton State Texans
2-0 · SOS #96
Loss 13-20
Week 1
Our number· model now
Tarleton State by 9
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Tarleton State by 7. 33 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Doyt L. Perry Stadium - at
Nebraska Cornhuskers
2-0 · SOS #31
Loss 7-56
Week 2
Our number· model now
Nebraska by 32
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
Final Nebraska by 49. 63 points. No book line was saved for this game.
FS1 Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) - at
Iowa State Cyclones
2-1 · SOS #29
Loss 7-55
Week 3
Our number· model now
Iowa State by 17
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
Final Iowa State by 48. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPNU Jack Trice Stadium - vs
South Florida Bulls
4-0 · SOS #133
Loss 6-14
Week 4
Our number· model now
South Florida by 13
Total 43
Book line
Not posted
Final South Florida by 8. 20 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 3 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTDZ)ESPN+ Doyt L. Perry Stadium - at
Miami (OH) RedHawks
2-3 · SOS #117
Win 24-20
Week 5
Our number· model now
Miami (OH) by 9
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
Final Bowling Green by 4. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 68°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOXD)ESPN+ Yager Stadium - vs
Sacramento State Hornets
1-5 · SOS #136
Win 38-10
Week 6
Our number· model now
Bowling Green by 13
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
Final Bowling Green by 28. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 8 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTDZ)ESPN+ Doyt L. Perry Stadium - vs
Ball State Cardinals
2-5 · SOS #85
Loss 31-32
Week 7
Our number· model now
Bowling Green by 5
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
Final Ball State by 1. 63 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 51°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTDZ)ESPN+ Doyt L. Perry Stadium - at
Buffalo Bulls
5-3 · SOS #127
Loss 24-31
Week 8
Our number· model now
Buffalo by 3
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
Final Buffalo by 7. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 5 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBUF)ESPN+ Broadview Stadium - at
Western Michigan Broncos
5-3 · SOS #91
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 14-31 · 13%
Our number
Western Michigan by 17
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 56°F, Wind 7 mph SE, 27% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTCBSSN Waldo Stadium - vs
Kent State Golden Flashes
3-5 · SOS #68
Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 25-19 · 66%
Our number
Bowling Green by 6
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Doyt L. Perry Stadium - at
Toledo Rockets
6-2 · SOS #122
Sat, Nov 21, 12:30 AM
Week 12
Proj 18-35 · 13%
Our number
Toledo by 17
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN2 Glass Bowl - vs
Massachusetts Minutemen
4-4 · SOS #138
Sat, Nov 28, 5:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 23-20 · 60%
Our number
Bowling Green by 3
Total 43
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Bowling Green Falcons stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-14.8
127th in FBS
Adj. offense
16.6
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
31.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 18.8 | 130 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 29.8 | 109 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.10 | 128 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.34 | 118 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 112.8 | 134 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 179.9 | 117 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 227.4 | 134 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 157.1 | 11 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.88 | 72 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.63 | 103 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.38 | 46 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.50 | 48 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.03 | 122 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.09 | 97 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.9% | 83 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.7% | 126 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.2% | 127 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.9% | 93 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.7% | 71 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.6% | 105 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.43 | 116 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.04 | 94 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 29 | 96 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 31 | 110 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 57.4 | 136 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.12 | 135 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.07 | 77 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.15 | 126 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.01 | 54 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 38.6% | 116 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 44.9% | 46 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 20.4% | 118 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 26.7% | 115 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.2% | 94 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 42.3% | 64 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 36.4% | 47 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 55.2% | 104 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 58.0% | 63 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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