Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bowling Green 28.8, Ball State 20.4 at Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Bowling Green wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.4 points and 49.2 combined points.
Ball State is 1-5, scoring 18.3 and allowing 39 points per game (-20.7 per game). Bowling Green is 2-4, scoring 15.8 and allowing 29.2 points per game (-13.4 per game).
Expect Ball State to find it hard going: Bowling Green's below-average defense (87th) outranks Ball State's struggling offense (127th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.7 points against an average defense). Bowling Green's struggling offense (134th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 15.8 points against an average defense) meets Ball State's struggling defense (135th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bowling Green puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ball State by 14 and Bowling Green by 31 about 80% of the time.
Bowling Green gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bowling Green by about 6.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Ball State 32, Bowling Green 31. Ball State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ball State / Bowling Green) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Bowling Green -7.75 → Bowling Green -6.25 | 44.75 → 46.5 | +210 / -256.5 |
| DraftKings | Bowling Green -8.5 → Bowling Green -6 | 44.5 → 46.5 | +195 / -238 |
| Bovada | Bowling Green -7 → Bowling Green -6.5 | 45 → 46.5 | +225 / -275 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Bowling Green win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Bowling Green -8.5 | 49.2 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Bowling Green -6.5 | 46.5 | 69% |
| Blended projection | Bowling Green -6.5 | 47.7 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Bowling Green win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 69% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Bowling Green -8.4 · market Bowling Green -6.25 · difference +2.2 pts (Bowling Green view)
- Total
- model 49.2 · market 46.5 · difference +2.7
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward Bowling Green than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ball State 20.4, Bowling Green 28.8 | Bowling Green 71%wrong winner | 9.4 | 13.8 |
| New formula | Ball State 19.3, Bowling Green 28.1 | Bowling Green 72%wrong winner | 9.8 | 15.5 |
Final: Ball State 32, Bowling Green 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ball State vs Bowling Green: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Ball State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.3#125 | 15.8#132 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.0#134 | 29.2#114 |
| Yards per play | 5.04#127 | 4.95#129 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.02#134 | 6.32#114 |
| Rushing yards per game | 127.8#119 | 109.7#134 |
| Net passing yards per game | 185.5#106 | 170.0#118 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 221.2#131 | 221.2#130 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 250.5#120 | 155.0#13 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#91 | 0.67#49 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#119 | 0.67#100 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#128 | 3.00#14 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17#95 | 1.00#25 |
| Stat | Ball State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#98 | -0.07#127 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#122 | +0.07#91 |
| Success rate | 35.4%#129 | 39.9%#111 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8%#114 | 45.7%#118 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.6%#129 | 10.2%#120 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.4%#134 | 12.7%#94 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6%#99 | 14.1%#72 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#85 | 13.8%#91 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.87#90 | 2.96#130 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.97#134 | 4.10#91 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#125 | own 28#105 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#76 | own 30#97 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.2#104 | 56.5#133 |
| Stat | Ball State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#107 | -0.18#138 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#86 | +0.05#91 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#78 | +0.18#129 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.31#130 | -0.06#36 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.3%#137 | 36.1%#123 |
| Passing success rate | 37.8%#110 | 43.9%#57 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.1%#135 | 21.9%#127 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.0%#100 | 23.5%#127 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.4%#126 | 26.6%#41 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.2%#130 | 38.6%#91 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.3%#122 | 31.1%#16 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.5%#78 | 53.8%#108 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 87.0%#138 | 52.6%#47 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ball State schedule · Bowling Green schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.