Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bowling Green 34.1, Tarleton State 19.9 at Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Bowling Green wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.2 points and 53.9 combined points.
Tarleton State is 1-0, scoring 49 and allowing 30 points per game (+19 per game). Bowling Green has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Tarleton State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Bowling Green's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tarleton State by 8 and Bowling Green by 37 about 80% of the time.
Bowling Green gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bowling Green by about 12.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Tarleton State 20, Bowling Green 13. Tarleton State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 21.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tarleton State / Bowling Green) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Bowling Green -2.25 → Bowling Green -1.75 | 47.75 → 48.75 | +102.5 / -122.5 |
| Bovada | Bowling Green -2 | 48 | +105 / -125 |
| DraftKings | Bowling Green -2.5 → Bowling Green -1.5 | 47.5 → 49.5 | +100 / -120 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Bowling Green win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Bowling Green -14 | 53.9 | 82% |
| Market consensus | Bowling Green -2 | 48.8 | 53% |
| Blended projection | Bowling Green -4 | 49.9 | 60% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Bowling Green win probability
- model 82% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference +30 pts
- Margin
- model Bowling Green -14.2 · market Bowling Green -1.75 · difference +12.5 pts (Bowling Green view)
- Total
- model 53.9 · market 48.75 · difference +5.1
Model margin is 12.5 pts more toward Bowling Green than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tarleton State 19.9, Bowling Green 34.1 | Bowling Green 82%wrong winner | 21.2 | 20.9 |
| New formula | Tarleton State 26.9, Bowling Green 30.0 | Bowling Green 57%wrong winner | 10.1 | 23.9 |
Final: Tarleton State 20, Bowling Green 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tarleton State vs Bowling Green: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tarleton State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.4 | 20.5#117 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.6 | 24.3#63 |
| Yards per play | 6.85 | 5.10#125 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.78 | 5.66#56 |
| Rushing yards per game | 209.4 | 169.6#68 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.2 | 149.0#126 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.7 | 150.1#47 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.1 | 190.3#29 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57 | 1.17#95 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.21 | 1.25#42 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29 | 1.75#93 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.93 | 2.42#112 |
| Stat | Tarleton State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19 | -0.11#128 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | -0.05#39 |
| Success rate | 45.6% | 36.0%#129 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.0% | 39.3%#39 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1% | 11.9%#85 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.1% | 12.8%#82 |
| Havoc rate | 15.1% | 16.2%#8 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8% | 13.6%#108 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.19 | 3.46#119 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.55 | 3.54#36 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | own 31#28 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 30#89 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.4 | 62.5#115 |
| Stat | Tarleton State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.09#122 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.29 | -0.15#123 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | -0.11#15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07 | +0.02#75 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.8% | 36.5%#128 |
| Passing success rate | 46.1% | 34.3%#127 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.4% | 19.0%#89 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.3% | 24.8%#123 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.0% | 30.6%#84 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7% | 36.5%#106 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1% | 34.9%#19 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.4% | 51.6%#117 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 35.8% | 72.8%#127 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tarleton State schedule · Bowling Green schedule · all Week 1 projections
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