2026 schedule
Tarleton State Texans
2026 season so far
Tarleton State is 8-0 against the 96th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.9 and allowing 22.6 points per game (+19.3 per game).
Tarleton State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Eastern Kentucky in Week 9. We project Tarleton State 41, Eastern Kentucky 16 — Tarleton State wins 95% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Prairie View A&M Panthers
0-1 · SOS #67
Win 49-30
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Tarleton State by 11.6
Total 56.8
DraftKings
TAR -19.5
Total 54.5
Final Tarleton State by 19. Prairie View A&M beat the spread. 79 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tarleton State -19.5 (open Tarleton State -21.5) · O/U 54.5 · ML +770 / -1540 · Tarleton State 89% no-vig · model vs market -7.9 pts, -11 pct pts (Tarleton State view)
ESPN2 Tarleton Memorial Stadium - at
Bowling Green Falcons
0-1 · SOS #92
Win 20-13
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Bowling Green by 14.2
Total 54
DraftKings
BGSU -1.5
Total 49.5
Final Tarleton State by 7. Tarleton State beat the spread. 33 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Bowling Green -1.75 (open Bowling Green -2.25) · O/U 48.75 (open 47.75) · ML +102.5 / -122.5 · Bowling Green 53% no-vig · model vs market +12.5 pts, +30 pct pts (Bowling Green view)
ESPN+ Doyt L. Perry Stadium - at
McNeese Cowboys
1-2 · SOS #26
Win 27-24
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Tarleton State by 9.6
Total 54.6
DraftKings
TAR -19.5
Total 56.5
Final Tarleton State by 3. McNeese beat the spread. 51 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tarleton State -19.5 (open Tarleton State -20.5) · O/U 56.5 · ML -1260 / +690 · McNeese 12% no-vig · model vs market +9.9 pts, +14 pct pts (McNeese view)
ESPN+ Navarre Stadium - vs
Merrimack Warriors
1-3 · SOS #66
Win 45-20
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Tarleton State by 12.7
Total 47.5
DraftKings
TAR -32.5
Total 54.5
Final Tarleton State by 25. Merrimack beat the spread. 65 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tarleton State -32.5 (open Tarleton State -34.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 58.5) · model vs market -19.8 pts (Tarleton State view)
ESPN+ Tarleton Memorial Stadium - vs
Chicago State Cougars
1-5 · SOS #134
Win 56-21
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Tarleton State by 27.7
Total 62.5
DraftKings
TAR -50.5
Total 64.5
Final Tarleton State by 35. Chicago State beat the spread. 77 points — over the 64.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tarleton State -50.5 (open Tarleton State -49.5) · O/U 64.5 (open 60.5) · model vs market -22.8 pts (Tarleton State view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 69°F, Wind 9 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSEP)ESPN+ Tarleton Memorial Stadium - at
Austin Peay Governors
5-2 · SOS #75
Win 40-32
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Tarleton State by 2.3
Total 62.9
DraftKings
APSU -2.5
Total 57.5
Final Tarleton State by 8. Tarleton State beat the spread. 72 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -2.5 (open Austin Peay -1.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 62.5) · ML +111 / -138 · Austin Peay 55% no-vig · model vs market -4.8 pts, -11 pct pts (Austin Peay view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 63°F, Wind 10 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCKV)ESPN+ Fortera Stadium - vs
Central Arkansas Bears
2-5 · SOS #28
Win 49-35
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Tarleton State by 20.9
Total 61.1
DraftKings
TAR -19.5
Total 61.5
Final Tarleton State by 14. Central Arkansas beat the spread. 84 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tarleton State -19.5 (open Tarleton State -18.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 62.5) · ML +610 / -1040 · Tarleton State 87% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +5 pct pts (Tarleton State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSEP)ESPN+ Tarleton Memorial Stadium - at
West Georgia Wolves
1-7 · SOS #29
Win 49-6
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Tarleton State by 16.9
Total 58.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Tarleton State by 43. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 68°F, Wind 8 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCTJ)ESPN+ University Stadium (GA) - vs
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
3-5 · SOS #36
Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 41-16 · 95%
Our number
Tarleton State by 25
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 72°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 23% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Tarleton Memorial Stadium - vs
Abilene Christian Wildcats
4-4 · SOS #6
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 37-22 · 83%
Our number
Tarleton State by 15
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Tarleton Memorial Stadium - at
West Florida Argonauts
4-3 · SOS #79
Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 36-21 · 83%
Our number
Tarleton State by 15
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Pen-Air Field - at
North Alabama Lions
4-4 · SOS #49
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 37-22 · 84%
Our number
Tarleton State by 15
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Braly Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Tarleton State Texans stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-2.6
Adj. offense
28.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
31.3
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 41.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 22.6 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 7.98 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.86 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 211.4 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 293.4 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 141.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 276.8 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.25 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 0.88 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.20 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.15 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 47.1% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 41.9% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 15.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.2% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.4% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.8% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.62 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 2.84 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 8 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 7 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 63.3 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.08 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.32 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.06 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.25 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 48.1% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 51.0% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 17.8% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 34.8% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.0% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 44.9% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 41.9% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 46.3% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 50.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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