Matchup analysis
Our model projects Tarleton State 37, Abilene Christian 22 at Tarleton Memorial Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Tarleton State wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.5 points and 59.5 combined points.
Abilene Christian is 4-4 against the 12th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.9 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-3.4 per game). Tarleton State is 8-0 against the 119th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.9 and allowing 22.6 points per game (+19.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Abilene Christian by 8 and Tarleton State by 37 about 80% of the time.
Tarleton State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tarleton State by about 12.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Abilene Christian vs Tarleton State: stat comparison
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Tarleton State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.9 | 41.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 22.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.55 | 7.98 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.09 | 5.86 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.0 | 211.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 181.9 | 293.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 180.1 | 141.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 201.5 | 276.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 | 0.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50 | 0.88 |
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Tarleton State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.20 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 45.2% | 47.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7% | 41.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 15.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 12.2% |
| Havoc rate | 11.1% | 11.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6% | 13.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.68 | 3.62 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.10 | 2.84 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.8 | 63.3 |
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Tarleton State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16 | +0.32 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.25 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6% | 48.1% |
| Passing success rate | 43.4% | 51.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.2% | 17.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.9% | 34.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9% | 31.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.5% | 44.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.7% | 41.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 9.6% | 46.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 15.9% | 50.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Abilene Christian schedule · Tarleton State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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