2026 schedule
Abilene Christian Wildcats
2026 season so far
Abilene Christian is 4-4 against the 6th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.9 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-3.4 per game).
Abilene Christian plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs West Georgia in Week 9. We project Abilene Christian 32, West Georgia 18 — Abilene Christian wins 83% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Lamar Cardinals
1-0 · SOS #104
Loss 14-21
Week 1
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 51.1
DraftKings
ACU -7.5
Total 49.5
Final Lamar by 7. Lamar beat the spread. 35 points — under the 49.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Abilene Christian -7.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML -303 / +232 · Lamar 29% no-vig · model vs market +7.8 pts, +22 pct pts (Lamar view)
ESPN+ Provost Umphrey Stadium - at
#12 Texas Tech Red Raiders
1-0 · SOS #74
Loss 10-33
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Texas Tech by 38.9
Total 54.5
DraftKings
TTU -45.5
Total 61.5
Final Texas Tech by 23. Abilene Christian beat the spread. 43 points — under the 61.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas Tech -45 (open Texas Tech -42.5) · O/U 61 (open 59.5) · model vs market -6.1 pts (Texas Tech view)
FS1 Galaxy Stadium - vs
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
3-0 · SOS #117
Loss 7-26
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 4.3
Total 52.9
DraftKings
SFA -3
Total 50.5
Final Stephen F. Austin by 19. Stephen F. Austin beat the spread. 33 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stephen F. Austin -3 · O/U 50.5 · ML -160 / +128 · Abilene Christian 42% no-vig · model vs market -1.3 pts, -3 pct pts (Abilene Christian view)
ESPN+ Wildcat Stadium (TX) - at
Idaho Vandals
0-4 · SOS #7
Win 41-39
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Idaho by 3.5
Total 52.3
DraftKings
ACU -1.5
Total 55.5
Final Abilene Christian by 2. Abilene Christian beat the spread. 80 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Abilene Christian -1.5 · O/U 55.5 (open 54.5) · ML -114 / -109 · Idaho 49% no-vig · model vs market +5.0 pts, +10 pct pts (Idaho view)
ESPN+ Kibbie Dome - vs
Mercer Bears
3-2 · SOS #130
Loss 17-34
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Abilene Christian by 5.6
Total 55
DraftKings
ACU -3.5
Total 48.5
Final Mercer by 17. Mercer beat the spread. 51 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Abilene Christian -3.5 · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · ML +187 / -239 · Abilene Christian 67% no-vig · model vs market +2.1 pts, -3 pct pts (Abilene Christian view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 90°F, Wind 10 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABI)ESPN+ Wildcat Stadium (TX) - vs
West Florida Argonauts
3-2 · SOS #79
Win 35-7
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Abilene Christian by 7.1
Total 53.3
DraftKings
ACU -7
Total 48.5
Final Abilene Christian by 28. Abilene Christian beat the spread. 42 points — under the 48.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Abilene Christian -7 (open Abilene Christian -2.5) · O/U 48.5 · ML +163 / -206 · Abilene Christian 64% no-vig · model vs market +0.1 pts, +4 pct pts (Abilene Christian view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 3 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABI)ESPN+ Wildcat Stadium (TX) - vs
Central Arkansas Bears
2-4 · SOS #28
Win 20-14
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Abilene Christian by 11.4
Total 56
DraftKings
ACU -10
Total 51.5
Final Abilene Christian by 6. Central Arkansas beat the spread. 34 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Abilene Christian -10 (open Abilene Christian -9.5) · O/U 51.5 · ML +294 / -397 · Abilene Christian 76% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +1 pct pts (Abilene Christian view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 10 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABI)ESPN+ Wildcat Stadium (TX) - at
North Alabama Lions
4-3 · SOS #49
Win 31-28
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Abilene Christian by 3.2
Total 49.8
DraftKings
ACU -2.5
Total 49.5
Final Abilene Christian by 3. Abilene Christian beat the spread. 59 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Abilene Christian -2.5 (open Abilene Christian -4) · O/U 49.5 (open 51.5) · ML -158 / +127 · North Alabama 42% no-vig · model vs market -0.7 pts, -0 pct pts (North Alabama view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 55°F, Wind 3 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSL)ESPN+ Braly Stadium - vs
West Georgia Wolves
1-7 · SOS #29
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 32-18 · 83%
Our number
Abilene Christian by 14
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 75°F, Wind 5 mph W, 12% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Wildcat Stadium (TX) - at
Tarleton State Texans
8-0 · SOS #96
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 22-37 · 17%
Our number
Tarleton State by 15
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Tarleton Memorial Stadium - at
Austin Peay Governors
7-2 · SOS #75
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 24-30 · 34%
Our number
Austin Peay by 6
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Fortera Stadium - vs
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
3-5 · SOS #36
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 31-18 · 79%
Our number
Abilene Christian by 13
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Wildcat Stadium (TX)
Times shown in your local time
Abilene Christian Wildcats stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-15.7
Adj. offense
18.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
34.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 21.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 25.3 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.55 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.09 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 155.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 181.9 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 180.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 201.5 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.88 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.50 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.50 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.10 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.11 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 45.2% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 43.7% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.2% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.8% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.1% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.6% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 0.68 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 1.10 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 60.8 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.16 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.13 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.08 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 46.6% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 43.4% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 20.2% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 33.9% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.9% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 45.5% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 33.7% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 9.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 15.9% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.