Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Abilene Christian 33.7, Central Arkansas 22.3 at Wildcat Stadium (TX) in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Abilene Christian wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.4 points and 55.9 combined points.
Central Arkansas is 2-3, scoring 25 and allowing 29.4 points per game (-4.4 per game). Abilene Christian is 2-4, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.7 points per game (-6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Arkansas by 11 and Abilene Christian by 34 about 80% of the time.
Abilene Christian gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Abilene Christian by about 9.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Central Arkansas 14, Abilene Christian 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.4 points and the total by 21.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Central Arkansas / Abilene Christian) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Abilene Christian -9.5 → Abilene Christian -10 | 51.5 | +294 / -397 |
| DraftKings | Abilene Christian -9.5 → Abilene Christian -10 | 51.5 | +294 / -397 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Abilene Christian win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Abilene Christian -11.5 | 55.9 | 77% |
| Market consensus | Abilene Christian -10 | 51.5 | 76% |
| Blended projection | Abilene Christian -10.5 | 52.4 | 76% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Abilene Christian win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) 76% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Abilene Christian -11.4 · market Abilene Christian -10 · difference +1.4 pts (Abilene Christian view)
- Total
- model 55.9 · market 51.5 · difference +4.4
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Abilene Christian than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Central Arkansas 22.3, Abilene Christian 33.7 | Abilene Christian 77%right winner | 5.4 | 21.9 |
| New formula | Central Arkansas 22.9, Abilene Christian 32.3 | Abilene Christian 73%right winner | 3.3 | 21.2 |
Final: Central Arkansas 14, Abilene Christian 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Central Arkansas vs Abilene Christian: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Abilene Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.5 | 29.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.2 | 26.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.22 | 6.02 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.26 | 5.97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 199.0 | 181.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.6 | 227.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 202.2 | 148.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 256.3 | 241.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.75 | 1.14 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 1.71 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 1.86 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.07 |
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Abilene Christian |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 46.9% | 45.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 40.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2% | 12.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5% | 11.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 12.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.67 | 3.27 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.46 | 4.12 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.1 | 68.0 |
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Abilene Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | 0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.2% | 42.8% |
| Passing success rate | 41.4% | 45.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.0% | 16.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4% | 31.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7% | 30.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.9% | 43.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.5% | 40.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.5% | 54.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 70.3% | 64.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Arkansas schedule · Abilene Christian schedule · all Week 6 projections
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