2026 schedule
Central Arkansas Bears
2026 season so far
Central Arkansas is 2-6 against the 28th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.1 and allowing 30.8 points per game (-5.7 per game).
Central Arkansas plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs North Alabama in Week 9. We project Central Arkansas 28, North Alabama 26 — Central Arkansas wins 54% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
UT Martin Skyhawks
0-1 · SOS #45
Win 36-24
Week 1
Our number· pregame
UT Martin by 4.7
Total 53.7
DraftKings
UTM -3
Total 50.5
Final Central Arkansas by 12. Central Arkansas beat the spread. 60 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UT Martin -3 · O/U 50.5 · model vs market +1.7 pts (UT Martin view)
ESPN+ Hardy M. Graham Stadium - vs
West Florida Argonauts
2-0 · SOS #79
Loss 14-42
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Central Arkansas by 6.3
Total 57.7
DraftKings
CARK -7.5
Total 55.5
Final West Florida by 28. West Florida beat the spread. 56 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Central Arkansas -7.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML +227 / -296 · Central Arkansas 71% no-vig · model vs market -1.2 pts, -5 pct pts (Central Arkansas view)
ESPN+ Estes Stadium - vs
Central Oklahoma Bronchos
1-1 · SOS #76
Win 59-20
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Central Arkansas by 4.9
Total 54.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Central Arkansas by 39. 79 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Estes Stadium - at
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
2-2 · SOS #70
Loss 9-27
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Southeast Missouri State by 5
Total 54.4
DraftKings
SEMO -4
Total 54.5
Final Southeast Missouri State by 18. Southeast Missouri State beat the spread. 36 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southeast Missouri State -4 (open Southeast Missouri State -3) · O/U 54.5 · ML +151 / -189 · Southeast Missouri State 62% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +1 pct pts (Southeast Missouri State view)
ESPN+ Houck Field - at
Florida State Seminoles
2-2 · SOS #13
Loss 7-34
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Florida State by 34.4
Total 60.2
DraftKings
FSU -45.5
Total 62.5
Final Florida State by 27. Central Arkansas beat the spread. 41 points — under the 62.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida State -46 (open Florida State -44.5) · O/U 62.5 (open 61) · model vs market -11.6 pts (Florida State view)
ACC Network Doak Campbell Stadium - at
Abilene Christian Wildcats
3-4 · SOS #6
Loss 14-20
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Abilene Christian by 11.4
Total 56
DraftKings
ACU -10
Total 51.5
Final Abilene Christian by 6. Central Arkansas beat the spread. 34 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Abilene Christian -10 (open Abilene Christian -9.5) · O/U 51.5 · ML +294 / -397 · Abilene Christian 76% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +1 pct pts (Abilene Christian view)
ESPN+ Wildcat Stadium (TX) - at
Tarleton State Texans
7-0 · SOS #96
Loss 35-49
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Tarleton State by 20.9
Total 61.1
DraftKings
TAR -19.5
Total 61.5
Final Tarleton State by 14. Central Arkansas beat the spread. 84 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tarleton State -19.5 (open Tarleton State -18.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 62.5) · ML +610 / -1040 · Tarleton State 87% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +5 pct pts (Tarleton State view)
ESPN+ Tarleton Memorial Stadium - vs
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
4-4 · SOS #85
Loss 27-30
Week 8
Our number· pregame
UT Rio Grande Valley by 2.6
Total 52.2
Book line
Not posted
Final UT Rio Grande Valley by 3. 57 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Estes Stadium - vs
North Alabama Lions
4-4 · SOS #49
Sat, Oct 31, 9:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 28-26 · 54%
Our number
Central Arkansas by 2
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Estes Stadium - vs
West Georgia Wolves
1-7 · SOS #29
Sat, Nov 7, 10:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 31-22 · 71%
Our number
Central Arkansas by 9
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Estes Stadium - at
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
3-5 · SOS #36
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 27-25 · 57%
Our number
Central Arkansas by 2
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Roy Kidd Stadium - vs
Austin Peay Governors
7-2 · SOS #75
Sat, Nov 21, 10:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 25-32 · 30%
Our number
Austin Peay by 7
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Estes Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Central Arkansas Bears stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-20.8
Adj. offense
17.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
38.2
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 25.1 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 30.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.04 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.22 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 220.5 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 175.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 158.3 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 218.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.38 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.75 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.63 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.10 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.11 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 44.6% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.6% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.7% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.2% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.7% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.1% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.60 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.70 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 8 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 65.5 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.17 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.01 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.11 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.12 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 47.9% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 39.2% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 15.8% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 35.2% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 34.6% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 41.0% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 47.3% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 65.2% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 46.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.