Matchup analysis
Our model projects Central Arkansas 27, Eastern Kentucky 25 at Roy Kidd Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Central Arkansas wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 51.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Central Arkansas is 2-6 against the 41st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.1 and allowing 30.8 points per game (-5.7 per game). Eastern Kentucky is 3-5 against the 43rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.3 and allowing 28.8 points per game (-10.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Arkansas by 25 and Eastern Kentucky by 20 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Central Arkansas is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Central Arkansas vs Eastern Kentucky: stat comparison
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Eastern Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.1 | 18.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.8 | 28.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.04 | 5.40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.22 | 6.04 |
| Rushing yards per game | 220.5 | 179.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 175.0 | 166.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.3 | 161.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.1 | 208.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.38 | 0.63 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.63 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Eastern Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.05 |
| Success rate | 44.6% | 39.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.6% | 42.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 13.7% | 14.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1% | 15.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70 | 4.12 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5 | 64.0 |
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Eastern Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.9% | 33.7% |
| Passing success rate | 39.2% | 42.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8% | 21.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.2% | 25.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.6% | 34.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.0% | 35.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.3% | 42.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.0% | 69.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Arkansas schedule · Eastern Kentucky schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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