2026 schedule
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
2026 season so far
Eastern Kentucky is 3-5 against the 36th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.3 and allowing 28.8 points per game (-10.5 per game).
Eastern Kentucky plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Tarleton State in Week 9. We project Eastern Kentucky 16, Tarleton State 41 — Eastern Kentucky wins 5% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- at
Western Carolina Catamounts
1-0 · SOS #27
Loss 21-45
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Western Carolina by 5
Total 58.4
DraftKings
WCU -3
Total 54.5
Final Western Carolina by 24. Western Carolina beat the spread. 66 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Carolina -3 (open Western Carolina -4.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 50.5) · ML +122 / -152 · Western Carolina 57% no-vig · model vs market +2.0 pts, +6 pct pts (Western Carolina view)
ESPN+ E.J. Whitmire StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
1-1 · SOS #119
Loss 7-49
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 28.1
Total 47.7
DraftKings
JXST -22.5
Total 51.5
Final Jacksonville State by 42. Jacksonville State beat the spread. 56 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jacksonville State -22.25 (open Jacksonville State -20.25) · O/U 52.25 (open 53) · ML +950 / -1850 · Jacksonville State 91% no-vig · model vs market +5.8 pts, +6 pct pts (Jacksonville State view)
ESPN+ AmFirst StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - vs
Chattanooga Mocs
1-2 · SOS #87
Win 22-17
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Eastern Kentucky by 3
Total 49.2
DraftKings
UTC -3
Total 48.5
Final Eastern Kentucky by 5. Eastern Kentucky beat the spread. 39 points — under the 48.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Chattanooga -3 · O/U 48.5 · ML -169 / +135 · Eastern Kentucky 40% no-vig · model vs market +6.0 pts, +17 pct pts (Eastern Kentucky view)
ESPN+ Roy Kidd StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitBounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last gameFlip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: hit (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over - vs
Dayton Flyers
3-0 · SOS #159
Loss 14-17
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Dayton by 3.7
Total 54.3
DraftKings
EKU -11.5
Total 46.5
Final Dayton by 3. Dayton beat the spread. 31 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Eastern Kentucky -11.5 (open Eastern Kentucky -10) · O/U 46.5 (open 45.5) · ML +317 / -436 · Eastern Kentucky 77% no-vig · model vs market -15.2 pts, -37 pct pts (Eastern Kentucky view)
ESPN+ Roy Kidd StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - vs
North Alabama Lions
4-2 · SOS #49
Loss 16-20
Week 5
Our number· pregame
North Alabama by 1.3
Total 47.7
DraftKings
EKU -1.5
Total 49.5
Final North Alabama by 4. North Alabama beat the spread. 36 points — under the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Eastern Kentucky -1.5 · O/U 49.5 (open 47.5) · ML -102 / -122 · Eastern Kentucky 52% no-vig · model vs market -2.8 pts, -6 pct pts (Eastern Kentucky view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 3 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRGA)ESPN+ Roy Kidd StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - vs
West Georgia Wolves
1-5 · SOS #29
Win 30-20
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Eastern Kentucky by 0.7
Total 47.3
DraftKings
EKU -5.5
Total 43.5
Final Eastern Kentucky by 10. Eastern Kentucky beat the spread. 50 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Eastern Kentucky -5.5 · O/U 43.5 (open 46.5) · ML +184 / -234 · Eastern Kentucky 67% no-vig · model vs market -4.8 pts, -15 pct pts (Eastern Kentucky view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 59°F, Wind 11 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRGA)ESPN+ Roy Kidd StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - at
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
6-1 · SOS #94
Loss 20-49
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Tennessee Tech by 15.8
Total 50.8
DraftKings
TNTC -14.5
Total 52.5
Final Tennessee Tech by 29. Tennessee Tech beat the spread. 69 points — over the 52.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee Tech -14.5 (open Tennessee Tech -14) · O/U 52.5 · ML +502 / -780 · Tennessee Tech 84% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, +1 pct pts (Tennessee Tech view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 59°F, Wind 7 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSRB)ESPN+ Tucker StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - vs
West Florida Argonauts
4-3 · SOS #79
Win 16-13
Week 8
Our number· pregame
West Florida by 3.4
Total 48.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Eastern Kentucky by 3. 29 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 3 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLEX)ESPN+ Roy Kidd StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit - at
Tarleton State Texans
8-0 · SOS #96
Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 16-41 · 5%
Our number
Tarleton State by 25
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 72°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 23% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Tarleton Memorial StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - at
Austin Peay Governors
7-2 · SOS #75
Sat, Nov 7, 10:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 17-34 · 14%
Our number
Austin Peay by 17
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Fortera StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Central Arkansas Bears
2-6 · SOS #28
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 25-27 · 43%
Our number
Central Arkansas by 2
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Roy Kidd StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
Abilene Christian Wildcats
4-4 · SOS #6
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 18-31 · 21%
Our number
Abilene Christian by 13
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Wildcat Stadium (TX)Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Eastern Kentucky Colonels stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-26.3
Adj. offense
11.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
37.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 18.3 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 28.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.40 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.04 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 179.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 166.1 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 161.9 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 208.3 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.63 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.63 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.63 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.00 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.03 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.05 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 39.1% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 42.1% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.9% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.7% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.6% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.80 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.12 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 8 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 7 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 64.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.05 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.01 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.10 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.01 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 33.7% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 42.4% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 21.8% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 25.2% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 34.1% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 35.2% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 42.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 69.2% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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