Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected West Florida 25.9, Eastern Kentucky 22.5 at Roy Kidd Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: West Florida wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.4 points and 48.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
West Florida is 4-2, scoring 26 and allowing 23 points per game (+3 per game). Eastern Kentucky is 2-5, scoring 18.6 and allowing 31 points per game (-12.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between West Florida by 26 and Eastern Kentucky by 19 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. West Florida is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: West Florida 13, Eastern Kentucky 16. Eastern Kentucky won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 6.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | West Florida 25.9, Eastern Kentucky 22.5 | West Florida 59%wrong winner | 6.4 | 19.3 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: West Florida 13, Eastern Kentucky 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: West Florida schedule · Eastern Kentucky schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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