2026 schedule
West Florida Argonauts
2026 season so far
West Florida is 4-3 against the 79th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.1 and allowing 22 points per game (+2.1 per game).
West Florida plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at North Alabama in Week 10. We project West Florida 24, North Alabama 25 — West Florida wins 47% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Southern Illinois Salukis
0-1 · SOS #30
Win 34-31
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Southern Illinois by 9.6
Total 59.8
DraftKings
SIU -19.5
Total 55.5
Final West Florida by 3. West Florida beat the spread. 65 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern Illinois -19.5 · O/U 55.5 · model vs market +9.9 pts (West Florida view)
ESPN+ Pen-Air Field - at
Central Arkansas Bears
1-1 · SOS #28
Win 42-14
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Central Arkansas by 6.3
Total 57.7
DraftKings
CARK -7.5
Total 55.5
Final West Florida by 28. West Florida beat the spread. 56 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Central Arkansas -7.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML +227 / -296 · Central Arkansas 71% no-vig · model vs market -1.2 pts, -5 pct pts (Central Arkansas view)
ESPN+ Estes Stadium - vs
Austin Peay Governors
3-1 · SOS #75
Loss 16-38
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 4.5
Total 50.7
DraftKings
APSU -10.5
Total 55.5
Final Austin Peay by 22. Austin Peay beat the spread. 54 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -11 (open Austin Peay -9) · O/U 55.25 · ML -382 / +284 · West Florida 25% no-vig · model vs market +6.5 pts, +14 pct pts (West Florida view)
ESPN+ Pen-Air Field - at
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
2-3 · SOS #70
Win 20-17
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Southeast Missouri State by 4.9
Total 50.7
DraftKings
SEMO -6
Total 52.5
Final West Florida by 3. West Florida beat the spread. 37 points — under the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southeast Missouri State -6 (open Southeast Missouri State -6.5) · O/U 52.5 · ML +137 / -171 · Southeast Missouri State 60% no-vig · model vs market -1.1 pts, +3 pct pts (Southeast Missouri State view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 68°F, Wind 6 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCGI)ESPN+ Houck Field - at
Abilene Christian Wildcats
2-4 · SOS #6
Loss 7-35
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Abilene Christian by 7.1
Total 53.3
DraftKings
ACU -7
Total 48.5
Final Abilene Christian by 28. Abilene Christian beat the spread. 42 points — under the 48.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Abilene Christian -7 (open Abilene Christian -2.5) · O/U 48.5 · ML +163 / -206 · Abilene Christian 64% no-vig · model vs market +0.1 pts, +4 pct pts (Abilene Christian view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 3 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABI)ESPN+ Wildcat Stadium (TX) - vs
Northeastern State RiverHawks
4-3 · SOS #12
Sat, Oct 10, 9:00 PM
Week 6
Proj 34.9-21.2 · 82%
Our number· pregame
West Florida by 13.7
Total 56.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 68°F, Wind 10 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPNS)Pen-Air Field - vs
West Alabama Tigers
5-2 · SOS #57
Win 37-3
Week 7
Our number· pregame
West Alabama by 6.7
Total 53.7
Book line
Not posted
Final West Florida by 34. 40 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 11 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPNS)ESPN+ Pen-Air Field - at
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
3-5 · SOS #36
Loss 13-16
Week 8
Our number· pregame
West Florida by 3.4
Total 48.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Eastern Kentucky by 3. 29 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 3 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLEX)ESPN+ Roy Kidd Stadium - at
North Alabama Lions
4-4 · SOS #49
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 24-25 · 47%
Our number
North Alabama by 1
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Braly Stadium - vs
Tarleton State Texans
8-0 · SOS #96
Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 21-36 · 17%
Our number
Tarleton State by 15
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Pen-Air Field - at
West Georgia Wolves
1-7 · SOS #29
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 27-21 · 64%
Our number
West Florida by 6
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ University Stadium (GA)
Times shown in your local time
West Florida Argonauts stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-19.3
Adj. offense
15.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
34.7
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 24.1 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 22.0 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.63 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.34 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 160.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 182.4 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 160.3 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 165.7 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.71 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.57 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 3.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.14 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.01 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.06 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 38.7% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 35.6% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.8% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.4% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 18.6% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 16.7% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.23 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 60.9 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.02 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.00 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.12 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 40.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 34.3% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 22.8% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 25.9% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 25.9% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 33.7% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 36.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 50.9% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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