Matchup analysis
Our model projects West Florida 27, West Georgia 21 at University Stadium (GA) in Week 12. That is a lean: West Florida wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 47.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
West Florida is 4-3 against the 79th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.1 and allowing 22 points per game (+2.1 per game). West Georgia is 1-7 against the 29th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 16.1 and allowing 33.5 points per game (-17.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between West Florida by 28 and West Georgia by 17 about 80% of the time.
West Georgia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. West Florida is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
West Florida vs West Georgia: stat comparison
| Stat | West Florida | West Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.1 | 16.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0 | 33.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.63 | 5.45 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.34 | 5.82 |
| Rushing yards per game | 160.0 | 83.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 182.4 | 264.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 160.3 | 201.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 165.7 | 181.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.57 | 0.38 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14 | 2.25 |
| Stat | West Florida | West Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 38.7% | 39.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 35.6% | 43.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8% | 11.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 10.7% |
| Havoc rate | 18.6% | 13.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.7% | 13.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72 | 3.03 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.23 | 4.49 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 18 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 15 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.9 | 63.8 |
| Stat | West Florida | West Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12 | +0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.0% | 37.5% |
| Passing success rate | 34.3% | 38.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.8% | 16.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.9% | 31.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.9% | 29.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.7% | 36.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0% | 47.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 49.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.9% | 76.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: West Florida schedule · West Georgia schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.