Week 12 College Football Projections (2026)

Updated Oct 29, 2026

Week 12 of the 2026 college football season has 70 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Texas A&M at Oklahoma (0-point margin), the highest projected total is Houston at West Virginia (66.4 points) and the lowest is Texas A&M at Oklahoma (38.7). 12 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every FBS game

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Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM EST
Ball State19
Ohio36
We project Ohio 36-19, a 16.9-point margin with 54.3 total points; Ohio wins 87% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · J. Bonds RB · Low rush yds 40 (avg 37) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · T. Horton RB · Low rush yds 50 (avg 53) · 77%J. Smith WR · Low catches 4.2 (avg 5.3) · 65%
Our number
Ohio by 16.9
Total 54.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ohio 87% · total 54.3Full preview →
Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM EST
Eastern Michigan18
Western Michigan32
We project Western Michigan 32-18, a 13.4-point margin with 50.2 total points; Western Michigan wins 81% of the time.
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. Blue RB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 45) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · B. Bennett RB · Low rush yds 32 (avg 31) · 75%B. Lowry QB · High pass yds 163 (avg 156) · 53%
Our number
Western Michigan by 13.4
Total 50.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Western Michigan 81% · total 50.2Full preview →
Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM EST
Miami (OH)29
Kent State20
We project Miami (OH) 29-20, a 9.2-point margin with 48.7 total points; Miami (OH) wins 73% of the time.
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Our number
Miami (OH) by 9.2
Total 48.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Miami (OH) 73% · total 48.7Full preview →
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
Akron24
Massachusetts28
We project Massachusetts 28-24, a 4.2-point margin with 51.3 total points; Massachusetts wins 61% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
W. Watson III QB · High pass yds 192 (avg 171) · 55%
Our number
Massachusetts by 4.2
Total 51.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Massachusetts 61% · total 51.3Full preview →
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
Central Michigan24
Buffalo25
We project Buffalo 25-24, a 1-point margin with 48.5 total points; Buffalo wins 52% of the time.
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Our number
Buffalo by 1
Total 48.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Buffalo 52% · total 48.5Full preview →
Thu, Nov 19, 7:30 PM ESTESPN
Rice24
Temple28
We project Temple 28-24, a 4.3-point margin with 52.4 total points; Temple wins 61% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
P. Clarke TE · Low rec yds 42 (avg 67) · 78%G. Ochoa QB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 70) · 77%A. Sheppard QB · High pass yds 171 (avg 161) · 54%
Our number
Temple by 4.3
Total 52.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Temple 61% · total 52.4Full preview →
Fri, Nov 20, 6:00 PM ESTFS1
Iowa State22
UCF28
We project UCF 28-22, a 6.4-point margin with 50.5 total points; UCF wins 66% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
C. Jackson WR · Low rec yds 44 (avg 68) · 77%K. Jenkins QB · High pass yds 204 (avg 157) · 70%
Our number
UCF by 6.4
Total 50.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UCF 66% · total 50.5Full preview →
Fri, Nov 20, 7:30 PM ESTESPN
Clemson22
Duke25
We project Duke 25-22, a 3.4-point margin with 46.4 total points; Duke wins 59% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
N. Sheppard RB · TD threat 78%G. Davidson RB · Low rush yds 55 (avg 70) · 70%T. Reynolds QB · High pass yds 168 (avg 157) · 56%
Our number
Duke by 3.4
Total 46.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Duke 59% · total 46.4Full preview →
Fri, Nov 20, 7:30 PM ESTESPN2
Bowling Green18
Toledo35
We project Toledo 35-18, a 17.1-point margin with 52.5 total points; Toledo wins 87% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · J. Kastantin QB · Low rush yds 18 (avg 16) · 75%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · A. Dendy RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 46) · 77%C. Miller RB · TD threat 72%
Our number
Toledo by 17.1
Total 52.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Toledo 87% · total 52.5Full preview →
Fri, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ESTFox
Oregon35
Michigan State14
We project Oregon 35-14, a 20.8-point margin with 49.3 total points; Oregon wins 91% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
D. Raiola QB · High pass yds 185 (avg 152) · 66%
Our number
Oregon by 20.8
Total 49.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Oregon 91% · total 49.3Full preview →
Fri, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ESTCW
UTEP15
Air Force39
We project Air Force 39-15, a 24.5-point margin with 53.8 total points; Air Force wins 95% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · T. Jones RB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 44) · 77%K. Thomas RB · Low rec yds 33 (avg 45) · 72%
Our number
Air Force by 24.5
Total 53.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Air Force 95% · total 53.8Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Virginia Tech16
Miami42
We project Miami 42-16, a 25.1-point margin with 58 total points; Miami wins 95% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Overton Jr. RB · Low rush yds 51 (avg 80) · 76%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · M. Hawkins Jr. RB · Low rush yds 29 (avg 42) · 75%Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · E. Grunkemeyer QB · Low rush yds 5 (avg 0) · 75%
Our number
Miami by 25.1
Total 58
DraftKings
Miami -16.5
Total 56.5
We're 8.6 points higher on Miami than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami -16.5 · O/U 56.5 · ML +675 / -1050 · Miami 88% no-vig · model vs market +8.6 pts, +7 pct pts (Miami view)
Miami 95% · total 58Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Ohio State32
Nebraska20
We project Ohio State 32-20, a 12.2-point margin with 51.2 total points; Ohio State wins 79% of the time.
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Rule RB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 65) · 75%Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · A. Colandrea QB · Low rush yds 42 (avg 48) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · M. Nelson RB · Low rush yds 40 (avg 44) · 75%
Our number
Ohio State by 12.2
Total 51.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ohio State 79% · total 51.2Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Georgia34
South Carolina24
We project Georgia 34-24, a 10-point margin with 58.2 total points; Georgia wins 74% of the time.
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · L. Sellers QB · Low rush yds 62 (avg 72) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · M. Fuller RB · Low rush yds 60 (avg 73) · 75%
Our number
Georgia by 10
Total 58.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Georgia 74% · total 58.2Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Indiana31
Washington17
We project Indiana 31-17, a 14.6-point margin with 47.9 total points; Indiana wins 83% of the time.
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · B. Bonner Jr. RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 49) · 78%L. Beebe Jr. RB · Low rush yds 62 (avg 79) · 68%E. Brown QB · High pass yds 205 (avg 193) · 53%
Our number
Indiana by 14.6
Total 47.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Indiana 83% · total 47.9Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Utah27
TCU19
We project Utah 27-19, a 7.6-point margin with 45.7 total points; Utah wins 69% of the time.
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
J. Dwyer WR · Low rec yds 80 (avg 121) · 74%K. Ashley TE · Low rec yds 52 (avg 73) · 73%W. Parker RB · TD threat 71%
Our number
Utah by 7.6
Total 45.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Utah 69% · total 45.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
UCLA21
Michigan21
We project Michigan 21-21, a 0.7-point margin with 42.3 total points; Michigan wins 52% of the time.
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
W. Knight RB · TD threat 69%A. Woods RB · Low rush yds 51 (avg 66) · 68%T. Dieffenbach QB · High pass yds 193 (avg 168) · 57%
Our number
Michigan by 0.7
Total 42.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Michigan 52% · total 42.3Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
BYU31
Kansas22
We project BYU 31-22, a 9.4-point margin with 53.5 total points; BYU wins 73% of the time.
Our number
BYU by 9.4
Total 53.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
BYU 73% · total 53.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Kentucky23
Missouri27
We project Missouri 27-23, a 4.2-point margin with 49.3 total points; Missouri wins 61% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
C. Baxter RB · Low rush yds 54 (avg 70) · 70%
Our number
Missouri by 4.2
Total 49.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Missouri 61% · total 49.3Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Arkansas13
Texas36
We project Texas 36-13, a 23.2-point margin with 49 total points; Texas wins 94% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · K. Jackson QB · Low rush yds 18 (avg 20) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · B. Russell RB · Low rush yds 28 (avg 29) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · S. Smith RB · Low rush yds 26 (avg 28) · 75%
Our number
Texas by 23.2
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texas 94% · total 49Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Texas Tech30
Baylor24
We project Texas Tech 30-24, a 6.3-point margin with 53.7 total points; Texas Tech wins 66% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
J. Williams RB · Low rush yds 70 (avg 88) · 69%
Our number
Texas Tech by 6.3
Total 53.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texas Tech 66% · total 53.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Wake Forest33
Georgia Tech21
We project Wake Forest 33-21, a 12.3-point margin with 54.6 total points; Wake Forest wins 79% of the time.
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Haynes RB · Low rush yds 70 (avg 86) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · T. Maddox RB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 47) · 75%
Our number
Wake Forest by 12.3
Total 54.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Wake Forest 79% · total 54.6Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
LSU27
Tennessee26
We project LSU 27-26, a 0.5-point margin with 53.4 total points; LSU wins 51% of the time.
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
High-scoring pick'em dogStudy · Moderate Underdog wins: Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: Record 87 hits, 52 misses (63% hit rate) over 139 graded games (n=139) · Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank
D. Morris RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 44) · 69%
Our number
LSU by 0.5
Total 53.4
DraftKings
LSU -1.5
Total 57.5
We're 1 points higher on Tennessee than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: LSU -1.5 · O/U 57.5 · ML -120 / +100 · Tennessee 48% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +1 pct pts (Tennessee view)
LSU 51% · total 53.4Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Vanderbilt23
Florida36
We project Florida 36-23, a 12.6-point margin with 58.7 total points; Florida wins 80% of the time.
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · J. Curtis QB · Low rush yds 19 (avg 21) · 75%J. Baugh RB · TD threat 82%
Our number
Florida by 12.6
Total 58.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Florida 80% · total 58.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Houston38
West Virginia29
We project Houston 38-29, a 9.1-point margin with 66.4 total points; Houston wins 73% of the time.
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
C. Weigman QB · High pass yds 293 (avg 257) · 57%M. Hawkins Jr. QB · High pass yds 209 (avg 200) · 56%
Our number
Houston by 9.1
Total 66.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Houston 73% · total 66.4Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Northwestern25
Minnesota21
We project Northwestern 25-21, a 4.3-point margin with 45.5 total points; Northwestern wins 61% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
C. Komolafe RB · Low rush yds 65 (avg 79) · 68%
Our number
Northwestern by 4.3
Total 45.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Northwestern 61% · total 45.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Arizona30
Kansas State24
We project Arizona 30-24, a 6.1-point margin with 54.7 total points; Arizona wins 66% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
T. Powell TE · Low catches 3.2 (avg 4) · 67%
Our number
Arizona by 6.1
Total 54.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Arizona 66% · total 54.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Oklahoma State30
Arizona State29
We project Oklahoma State 30-29, a 0.9-point margin with 58.5 total points; Oklahoma State wins 52% of the time.
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Our number
Oklahoma State by 0.9
Total 58.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Oklahoma State 52% · total 58.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Wisconsin29
Purdue20
We project Wisconsin 29-20, a 8.8-point margin with 49.1 total points; Wisconsin wins 72% of the time.
R. Browne QB · Low pass yds 215 (avg 260) · 66%T. Henry WR · Low catches 3.3 (avg 4) · 65%C. Joseph QB · High pass yds 182 (avg 179) · 52%
Our number
Wisconsin by 8.8
Total 49.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Wisconsin 72% · total 49.1Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Texas A&M19
Oklahoma19
We project Oklahoma 19-19, a 0-point margin with 38.7 total points; Oklahoma wins 50% of the time.
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded games (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
R. Owens II RB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 42) · 69%
Our number
dead even
Total 38.7
DraftKings
Oklahoma -2.5
Total 51.5
We're 2.5 points higher on Texas A&M than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oklahoma -2.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML +120 / -142 · Oklahoma 56% no-vig · model vs market -2.5 pts, -6 pct pts (Oklahoma view)
Oklahoma 50% · total 38.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Colorado23
Cincinnati32
We project Cincinnati 32-23, a 9.6-point margin with 55.2 total points; Cincinnati wins 74% of the time.
C. Tabb RB · TD threat 75%J. French IV QB · High pass yds 240 (avg 216) · 58%I. Wilson QB · High pass yds 219 (avg 196) · 57%
Our number
Cincinnati by 9.6
Total 55.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Cincinnati 74% · total 55.2Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
NC State26
Florida State36
We project Florida State 36-26, a 10.1-point margin with 61.7 total points; Florida State wins 75% of the time.
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
A. Daniels QB · High pass yds 250 (avg 231) · 56%
Our number
Florida State by 10.1
Total 61.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Florida State 75% · total 61.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
North Carolina22
Virginia22
We project Virginia 22-22, a 0.6-point margin with 43.7 total points; Virginia wins 52% of the time.
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Our number
Virginia by 0.6
Total 43.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Virginia 52% · total 43.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Pittsburgh28
Louisville31
We project Louisville 31-28, a 3.5-point margin with 59.2 total points; Louisville wins 59% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
I. Brown RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 81) · 73%K. Brown RB · Low rush yds 54 (avg 70) · 71%
Our number
Louisville by 3.5
Total 59.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Louisville 59% · total 59.2Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Stanford26
California30
We project California 30-26, a 4-point margin with 55.3 total points; California wins 60% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
J. Sagapolutele QB · High pass yds 228 (avg 222) · 52%
Our number
California by 4
Total 55.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
California 60% · total 55.3Full preview →

Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Syracuse26
Boston College26
We project Syracuse 26-26, a 0.1-point margin with 52.4 total points; Syracuse wins 50% of the time.
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Our number
dead even
Total 52.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Syracuse 50% · total 52.4Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Iowa28
Illinois21
We project Iowa 28-21, a 6.8-point margin with 49.1 total points; Iowa wins 67% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
H. Brown QB · High pass yds 180 (avg 161) · 56%
Our number
Iowa by 6.8
Total 49.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Iowa 67% · total 49.1Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Rutgers23
Penn State34
We project Penn State 34-23, a 10.9-point margin with 57.4 total points; Penn State wins 76% of the time.
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · A. Raymond RB · Low rush yds 85 (avg 93) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · C. Thevenin RB · Low rush yds 63 (avg 58) · 77%K. Duff WR · TD threat 67%
Our number
Penn State by 10.9
Total 57.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Penn State 76% · total 57.4Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Maryland22
USC39
We project USC 39-22, a 17.7-point margin with 60.8 total points; USC wins 88% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · D. Williams RB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 70) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · I. Howard RB · Low rush yds 26 (avg 32) · 78%
Our number
USC by 17.7
Total 60.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
USC 88% · total 60.8Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Charlotte18
Tulsa38
We project Tulsa 38-18, a 19.2-point margin with 55.8 total points; Tulsa wins 90% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
B. Hayes QB · High pass yds 258 (avg 224) · 55%
Our number
Tulsa by 19.2
Total 55.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Tulsa 90% · total 55.8Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
South Florida34
Florida Atlantic27
We project South Florida 34-27, a 6.9-point margin with 61 total points; South Florida wins 67% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
D. Crowther RB · TD threat 78%M. Van Buren Jr. QB · High pass yds 214 (avg 181) · 61%
Our number
South Florida by 6.9
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
South Florida 67% · total 61Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
North Texas32
Tulane27
We project North Texas 32-27, a 4.9-point margin with 58.7 total points; North Texas wins 63% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
J. White RB · TD threat 87%T. Johnson QB · High pass yds 219 (avg 155) · 72%J. Stevenson WR · TD threat 67%
Our number
North Texas by 4.9
Total 58.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
North Texas 63% · total 58.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
UTSA36
UAB22
We project UTSA 36-22, a 13.3-point margin with 58 total points; UTSA wins 81% of the time.
A. Peterson RB · TD threat 77%
Our number
UTSA by 13.3
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UTSA 81% · total 58Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Hawai'i22
Nevada27
We project Nevada 27-22, a 4.8-point margin with 48.9 total points; Nevada wins 62% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Our number
Nevada by 4.8
Total 48.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Nevada 62% · total 48.9Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
UL Monroe20
App State33
We project App State 33-20, a 12.4-point margin with 53.2 total points; App State wins 79% of the time.
J. Lewis RB · TD threat 75%A. Carlisle QB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 47) · 72%
Our number
App State by 12.4
Total 53.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
App State 79% · total 53.2Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Arkansas State20
Louisiana Tech32
We project Louisiana Tech 32-20, a 12-point margin with 52.8 total points; Louisiana Tech wins 78% of the time.
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Owens QB · Low rush yds 26 (avg 26) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · K. Clay RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 37) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · S. Baggett RB · Low rush yds 39 (avg 44) · 78%
Our number
Louisiana Tech by 12
Total 52.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Louisiana Tech 78% · total 52.8Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Coastal Carolina21
Louisiana32
We project Louisiana 32-21, a 10.1-point margin with 52.9 total points; Louisiana wins 75% of the time.
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · D. Bailey QB · Low rush yds 28 (avg 33) · 75%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · D. Lee-Knicely RB · Low rush yds 66 (avg 65) · 77%L. Winfield QB · High pass yds 206 (avg 182) · 57%
Our number
Louisiana by 10.1
Total 52.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Louisiana 75% · total 52.9Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Georgia Southern27
Troy24
We project Georgia Southern 27-24, a 3.6-point margin with 51.3 total points; Georgia Southern wins 59% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Our number
Georgia Southern by 3.6
Total 51.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Georgia Southern 59% · total 51.3Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Georgia State31
Marshall28
We project Georgia State 31-28, a 2.7-point margin with 59.5 total points; Georgia State wins 57% of the time.
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
R. Dorsey WR · TD threat 67%
Our number
Georgia State by 2.7
Total 59.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Georgia State 57% · total 59.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
South Alabama35
Southern Miss30
We project South Alabama 35-30, a 4.7-point margin with 65.5 total points; South Alabama wins 62% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
P. Martin RB · TD threat 71%S. Robinson RB · TD threat 68%L. Lyddy QB · High pass yds 217 (avg 171) · 67%
Our number
South Alabama by 4.7
Total 65.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
South Alabama 62% · total 65.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 PM ESTSECN+
Wofford4
Ole Miss50
We project Ole Miss 50-4, a 46.5-point margin with 54.2 total points; Ole Miss wins 100% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Our number
Ole Miss by 46.5
Total 54.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ole Miss 100% · total 54.2Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 PM ESTCBSSN
East Carolina24
Army29
We project Army 29-24, a 4.9-point margin with 52.5 total points; Army wins 63% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Our number
Army by 4.9
Total 52.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Army 63% · total 52.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 PM EST
Memphis29
Navy28
We project Memphis 29-28, a 1.9-point margin with 57.1 total points; Memphis wins 55% of the time.
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
B. Woodson QB · Low rush yds 62 (avg 77) · 71%
Our number
Memphis by 1.9
Total 57.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Memphis 55% · total 57.1Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 1:00 PM ESTSECN+
Tennessee Tech21
Mississippi State38
We project Mississippi State 38-21, a 16.8-point margin with 59.5 total points; Mississippi State wins 87% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Our number
Mississippi State by 16.8
Total 59.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Mississippi State 87% · total 59.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 1:00 PM EST
Western Kentucky16
Liberty32
We project Liberty 32-16, a 15.6-point margin with 48.1 total points; Liberty wins 85% of the time.
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · A. Allen RB · Low rush yds 46 (avg 52) · 75%Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · B. Glenn QB · Low rush yds 51 (avg 56) · 75%
Our number
Liberty by 15.6
Total 48.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Liberty 85% · total 48.1Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM ESTSECN+
Chattanooga2
Alabama45
We project Alabama 45-2, a 42.6-point margin with 47.6 total points; Alabama wins 100% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Our number
Alabama by 42.6
Total 47.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Alabama 100% · total 47.6Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM EST
Missouri State21
Jacksonville State33
We project Jacksonville State 33-21, a 11.6-point margin with 53.8 total points; Jacksonville State wins 78% of the time.
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · B. Dubar RB · Low rush yds 34 (avg 36) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · R. Green Jr. RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 34) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · C. Lair RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 32) · 77%
Our number
Jacksonville State by 11.6
Total 53.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jacksonville State 78% · total 53.8Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM EST
Middle Tennessee23
Sam Houston24
We project Sam Houston 24-23, a 0.5-point margin with 46.7 total points; Sam Houston wins 51% of the time.
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Our number
Sam Houston by 0.5
Total 46.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Sam Houston 51% · total 46.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 3:00 PM EST
Delaware29
New Mexico State26
We project Delaware 29-26, a 2.4-point margin with 55 total points; Delaware wins 56% of the time.
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Our number
Delaware by 2.4
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Delaware 56% · total 55Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 3:00 PM EST
Florida International21
Kennesaw State22
We project Kennesaw State 22-21, a 0.2-point margin with 43.1 total points; Kennesaw State wins 51% of the time.
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Our number
dead even
Total 43.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kennesaw State 51% · total 43.1Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 3:30 PM ESTSECN+
Samford5
Auburn41
We project Auburn 41-5, a 35.5-point margin with 45.7 total points; Auburn wins 99% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Our number
Auburn by 35.5
Total 45.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Auburn 99% · total 45.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 3:30 PM ESTCBSSN
Old Dominion20
UConn28
We project UConn 28-20, a 8.1-point margin with 48.5 total points; UConn wins 70% of the time.
Our number
UConn by 8.1
Total 48.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UConn 70% · total 48.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 4:00 PM ESTCW
Northern Illinois11
North Dakota State37
We project North Dakota State 37-11, a 26.9-point margin with 48 total points; North Dakota State wins 96% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Dickens QB · Low rush yds 7 (avg 2) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Johnson Jr. RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 72) · 78%N. Hayes QB · High pass yds 208 (avg 184) · 55%
Our number
North Dakota State by 26.9
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
North Dakota State 96% · total 48Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM ESTUSA Net
Washington State22
Texas State36
We project Texas State 36-22, a 13.4-point margin with 57.8 total points; Texas State wins 81% of the time.
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · K. Vorhees RB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 34) · 75%B. Jackson QB · High pass yds 251 (avg 229) · 56%
Our number
Texas State by 13.4
Total 57.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texas State 81% · total 57.8Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ESTCBSSN
UNLV27
San José State21
We project UNLV 27-21, a 6.8-point margin with 48 total points; UNLV wins 67% of the time.
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Our number
UNLV by 6.8
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UNLV 67% · total 48Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 7:30 PM ESTNBC
SMU19
Notre Dame39
We project Notre Dame 39-19, a 20.6-point margin with 57.6 total points; Notre Dame wins 91% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
Defensive bounce-back favStudy · Lean Favorite covers: Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game: Record 170 hits, 113 misses (60% hit rate) over 283 graded games (n=283) · Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · K. Raphael RB · Low rush yds 64 (avg 92) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · K. Jennings QB · Low rush yds 14 (avg 17) · 78%K. Jennings QB · Low pass yds 222 (avg 295) · 70%
Our number
Notre Dame by 20.6
Total 57.6
DraftKings
Notre Dame -17.5
Total 56.5
We're 3.1 points higher on Notre Dame than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Notre Dame -17.5 · O/U 56.5 · ML +750 / -1200 · Notre Dame 89% no-vig · model vs market +3.1 pts, +2 pct pts (Notre Dame view)
Notre Dame 91% · total 57.6Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 7:30 PM ESTCW
Colorado State25
Fresno State36
We project Fresno State 36-25, a 11.3-point margin with 61.6 total points; Fresno State wins 77% of the time.
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
H. Hejny QB · Low rush yds 42 (avg 53) · 71%D. Robinson RB · TD threat 66%J. Mandal QB · High pass yds 246 (avg 199) · 63%
Our number
Fresno State by 11.3
Total 61.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Fresno State 77% · total 61.6Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM ESTFS1
New Mexico28
Wyoming13
We project New Mexico 28-13, a 14.5-point margin with 41 total points; New Mexico wins 83% of the time.
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Hughes QB · Low rush yds 64 (avg 76) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · S. Harris RB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 47) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. Holman RB · Low rush yds 49 (avg 55) · 78%
Our number
New Mexico by 14.5
Total 41
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
New Mexico 83% · total 41Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 9:30 PM ESTUSA Net
San Diego State17
Boise State41
We project Boise State 41-17, a 24.5-point margin with 57.8 total points; Boise State wins 95% of the time.
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Kinnard RB · Low rush yds 57 (avg 75) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · L. Sutton RB · Low rush yds 56 (avg 72) · 78%D. Riley RB · TD threat 78%
Our number
Boise State by 24.5
Total 57.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Boise State 95% · total 57.8Full preview →
Sat, Nov 21, 10:30 PM ESTCBSSN
Utah State20
Oregon State32
We project Oregon State 32-20, a 11.6-point margin with 51.8 total points; Oregon State wins 78% of the time.
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
J. Legree WR · TD threat 80%
Our number
Oregon State by 11.6
Total 51.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Oregon State 78% · total 51.8Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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