Matchup analysis
Our model projects Oklahoma 19, Texas A&M 19 at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Oklahoma wins about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0 points and 38.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Texas A&M is 4-4 against the 27th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 18.9 points per game (+9.4 per game). Oklahoma is 4-3 against the 9th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.6 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+3.9 per game).
Expect Texas A&M to find it hard going: Oklahoma's elite defense (5th) outranks Texas A&M's strong offense (23rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.6 points against an average defense). Texas A&M's strong defense (14th) should limit Oklahoma's middle-of-the-pack offense (63rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas A&M by 23 and Oklahoma by 23 about 80% of the time.
Oklahoma gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Texas A&M would be favoured by 2.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas A&M / Oklahoma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma -2.5 | 51.5 | +120 / -142 |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma -2.5 | 51.5 | +120 / -142 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oklahoma win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pick'em | 38.7 | 50% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma -2.5 | 51.5 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma -2 | 51.5 | 56% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oklahoma win probability
- model 50% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Pick'em · market Oklahoma -2.5 · difference -2.5 pts (Oklahoma view)
- Total
- model 38.7 · market 51.5 · difference -12.8
Model margin is 2.5 pts more toward Texas A&M than the market.
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Texas A&M vs Oklahoma: stat comparison
| Stat | Texas A&M | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3#72 | 21.6#110 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.9#27 | 17.7#24 |
| Yards per play | 5.26#122 | 5.64#100 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.01#93 | 5.14#35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.9#63 | 123.1#126 |
| Net passing yards per game | 185.4#110 | 234.9#57 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 135.9#43 | 137.3#47 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.1#66 | 155.1#8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#116 | 1.71#135 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88#63 | 0.57#109 |
| Sacks per game | 0.88#133 | 3.29#6 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#61 | 2.43#106 |
| Stat | Texas A&M | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#106 | -0.05#131 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#43 | -0.12#5 |
| Success rate | 42.7%#71 | 36.5%#132 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6%#45 | 34.0%#4 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6%#122 | 9.9%#129 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.6%#132 | 9.9%#19 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#97 | 15.1%#40 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8%#54 | 17.4%#135 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.54#34 | 3.31#124 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.31#23 | 2.75#4 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#19 | own 27#120 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#57 | own 32#127 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5#54 | 63.4#92 |
| Stat | Texas A&M | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#61 | -0.10#132 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#124 | -0.01#110 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#19 | -0.06#27 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#83 | -0.19#5 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.6%#68 | 34.7%#134 |
| Passing success rate | 40.9%#78 | 38.0%#108 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.1%#34 | 19.6%#107 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6%#47 | 29.9%#91 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.4%#31 | 25.6%#22 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.9%#56 | 40.4%#74 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.0%#20 | 24.4%#2 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.1%#73 | 40.0%#136 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1%#77 | 46.7%#19 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas A&M schedule · Oklahoma schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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