Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jacksonville State 33, Missouri State 21 at AmFirst Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Jacksonville State wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.6 points and 53.8 combined points.
Missouri State is 3-5 against the 108th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 30.9 points per game (-6.5 per game). Jacksonville State is 6-2 against the 119th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.9 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+7 per game).
Jacksonville State's middle-of-the-pack defense (82nd) should limit Missouri State's below-average offense (116th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.4 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Jacksonville State's below-average offense (95th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) against Missouri State's struggling defense (128th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Missouri State by 11 and Jacksonville State by 34 about 80% of the time.
Jacksonville State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jacksonville State by about 9.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Missouri State vs Jacksonville State: stat comparison
| Stat | Missouri State | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4#98 | 26.9#81 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.9#118 | 19.9#33 |
| Yards per play | 5.97#73 | 6.67#27 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.29#115 | 5.46#60 |
| Rushing yards per game | 142.7#107 | 154.9#94 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.4#61 | 248.0#46 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 185.1#106 | 162.6#84 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 262.4#129 | 190.3#44 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#114 | 0.86#62 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#100 | 0.86#72 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#118 | 1.57#103 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#78 | 1.00#18 |
| Stat | Missouri State | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#81 | +0.18#27 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#112 | +0.11#104 |
| Success rate | 42.8%#70 | 47.0%#30 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#114 | 41.8%#77 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#78 | 13.8%#40 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#86 | 11.5%#68 |
| Havoc rate | 13.6%#78 | 14.7%#61 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1%#65 | 13.9%#88 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.99#81 | 4.12#68 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.23#106 | 3.48#40 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#130 | own 29#94 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 35#138 | own 29#62 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.9#99 | 60.4#118 |
| Stat | Missouri State | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#62 | +0.08#69 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#88 | +0.28#17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#83 | +0.13#118 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19#115 | +0.08#85 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.5%#26 | 46.6%#46 |
| Passing success rate | 37.9%#111 | 48.7%#22 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3%#89 | 17.9%#83 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.4%#82 | 35.1%#34 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0%#91 | 28.5%#53 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.7%#101 | 45.7%#34 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.0%#117 | 47.4%#129 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.8%#126 | 49.5%#121 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.6%#81 | 56.0%#50 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Missouri State schedule · Jacksonville State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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