2026 schedule

Missouri State Bears

3-5SOS #108

2026 season so far

Missouri State is 3-5 against the 108th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 30.9 points per game (-6.5 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Missouri State ranks 127th of 139 FBS teams overall — 116th on offense and 128th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: at Florida International in Week 10. We project Missouri State 20, Florida International 27 — Missouri State wins 33% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
#8 Texas A&M Aggies
1-0 · SOS #27
Loss 0-50
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Texas A&M by 15.1
Total 56.3
DraftKings
TA&M -38.5
Total 53.5
Final Texas A&M by 50. Texas A&M beat the spread. 50 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas A&M -39.5 (open Texas A&M -38.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 52.5) · model vs market -24.4 pts (Texas A&M view)
ESPN Kyle Field
Pregame calls · how each did
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
Lindenwood Lions
1-2 · SOS #98
Win 48-14
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Missouri State by 29.3
Total 52.3
DraftKings
MOST -16.5
Total 53.5
Final Missouri State by 34. Missouri State beat the spread. 62 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Missouri State -16.75 (open Missouri State -18.25) · O/U 53.25 (open 52.5) · ML +562.5 / -850 · Missouri State 86% no-vig · model vs market +12.5 pts, +12 pct pts (Missouri State view)
ESPN+ Robert W. Plaster Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
vs
Marshall Thundering Herd
2-1 · SOS #106
Loss 24-30
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Missouri State by 3.8
Total 51.6
DraftKings
MRSH -4
Total 52.5
Final Marshall by 6. Marshall beat the spread. 54 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Marshall -4 (open Marshall -4.25) · O/U 52.5 (open 52.75) · ML -188.5 / +160 · Missouri State 37% no-vig · model vs market +7.8 pts, +23 pct pts (Missouri State view)
CBSSN Robert W. Plaster Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: missed (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
at
#22 SMU Mustangs
3-1 · SOS #70
Loss 24-34
Week 4
Our number· pregame
SMU by 32
Total 57.6
DraftKings
SMU -30.5
Total 60.5
Final SMU by 10. Missouri State beat the spread. 58 points — under the 60.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -30.5 (open SMU -34.75) · O/U 60.5 (open 58.75) · ML +2500 / -9000 · SMU 96% no-vig · model vs market +1.5 pts, +2 pct pts (SMU view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 84°F, Wind 9 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAL)
ACC Network Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missed
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · B. Dubar RB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 39) · 77% · 76 ✗Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · R. Green Jr. RB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 53) · 77% · 27 ✓K. Raphael RB · TD threat 80% · 1 ✓
at
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
2-4 · SOS #89
Loss 13-34
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Western Kentucky by 3.5
Total 56.1
DraftKings
MOST -1.5
Total 56.5
Final Western Kentucky by 21. Western Kentucky beat the spread. 47 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Missouri State -1.75 (open Western Kentucky -2.5) · O/U 56.75 (open 56) · ML -6 / -14 · Western Kentucky 51% no-vig · model vs market +5.3 pts, +8 pct pts (Western Kentucky view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBWG)
CBSSN Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10Short dog · fav lost, weak D: hit
I. Myers WR · Low rec yds 69 (avg 114) · 80% · 77 ✓I. Myers WR · Low catches 4.5 (avg 5.7) · 68% · 3 ✓S. Locklear QB · High pass yds 187 (avg 175) · 55% · 89 ✗
vs
Kennesaw State Owls
1-5 · SOS #96
Win 24-21
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Kennesaw State by 1.6
Total 49.8
DraftKings
KENN -2.5
Total 52.5
Final Missouri State by 3. Missouri State beat the spread. 45 points — under the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kennesaw State -2.5 (open Kennesaw State -3) · O/U 52.5 (open 51) · ML -153.5 / +130 · Missouri State 42% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, +4 pct pts (Missouri State view)
Kickoff forecast: Showers and thunderstorms, 80°F, Wind 5 mph S, 90% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 11, 8:43 AM EDT · last stored copy
CBSSN Robert W. Plaster Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10Short dog · fav lost, weak D: hit
I. Myers WR · Low rec yds 65 (avg 105) · 78% · 135 ✗I. Myers WR · Low catches 4.2 (avg 5) · 66% · 7 ✗
at
Delaware Blue Hens
3-4 · SOS #116
Loss 38-61
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Delaware by 4
Total 55.6
DraftKings
DEL -3
Total 54.5
Final Delaware by 23. Delaware beat the spread. 99 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Delaware -3 · O/U 54.5 · ML +132 / -162 · Delaware 59% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +2 pct pts (Delaware view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 52°F, Wind 7 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KILG)
ESPNU Delaware Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Slow-pace scoring dog vs reeling favDog 24+ pts, slow, fav lost · 2014–25 Underdog expected to score 24+, favorite lost its last game, both teams play slow: Record 81 hits, 70 misses (54% hit rate) over 151 graded games · 2026: 11-10Dog 24+ pts, slow, fav lost: missed
TD-shy dog vs sloppy fav under2026 combo · Held up Under: Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnderdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: missed (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats No-pass-rush dog vs pass-soft fav2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Underdog sacks: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing yards allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 15 hits, 10 misses (60% hit rate) over 25 graded gamesUnderdog sacks: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing yards allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: missed (n=25; wk 5–7 8-4) · Underdog sacks: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing yards allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank
I. Myers WR · Low rec yds 73 (avg 111) · 76% · 242 ✗I. Myers WR · Low catches 4.4 (avg 5.4) · 65% · 11 ✗
vs
Sam Houston Bearkats
1-7 · SOS #118
Win 24-3
Week 9
Our number· pregame
Missouri State by 4.5
Total 52.5
DraftKings
MOST -5.5
Total 51.5
Final Missouri State by 21. Missouri State beat the spread. 27 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Missouri State -5.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML +175 / -210 · Missouri State 66% no-vig · model vs market -1.0 pts, -4 pct pts (Missouri State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 67°F, Wind 7 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSGF)
ESPN2 Robert W. Plaster Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
I. Myers WR · TD threat 74% · 1 ✓I. Myers WR · Low rec yds 95 (avg 133) · 74% · 77 ✓
at
Florida International Panthers
3-4 · SOS #137
Sat, Nov 7, 9:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 20-27 · 33%
Our number
Florida International by 7
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Pitbull Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
I. Myers WR · Low rec yds 89 (avg 125) · 73%H. Belin IV QB · High pass yds 168 (avg 153) · 60%
vs
New Mexico State Aggies
3-5 · SOS #114
Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 27-25 · 54%
Our number
Missouri State by 2
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
H. Belin IV QB · High pass yds 182 (avg 153) · 66%
at
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
6-2 · SOS #119
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 21-33 · 22%
Our number
Jacksonville State by 12
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
AmFirst Stadium
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · B. Dubar RB · Low rush yds 34 (avg 36) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · R. Green Jr. RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 34) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · C. Lair RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 32) · 77%
vs
Liberty Flames
6-1 · SOS #134
Sat, Nov 28, 7:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 18-33 · 17%
Our number
Liberty by 15
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · B. Dubar RB · Low rush yds 33 (avg 36) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · R. Green Jr. RB · Low rush yds 34 (avg 34) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · C. Lair RB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 32) · 77%

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Missouri State Bears stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-14.1

126th in FBS

Adj. offense

20.4

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

34.5

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	24.4	98 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	30.9	118 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.97	73 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.29	115 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	142.7	107 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	232.4	61 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	185.1	106 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	262.4	129 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.14	114 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.71	100 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.29	118 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.86	78 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.07	81 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.12	112 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	42.8%	70 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	44.5%	114 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	12.3%	78 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	12.5%	86 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	13.6%	78 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	13.1%	65 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.99	81 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.23	106 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 27	130 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 35	138 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	62.9	99 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.09	62 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.04	88 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.06	83 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.19	115 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	48.5%	26 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	37.9%	111 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	18.3%	89 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	30.4%	82 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	31.0%	91 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	36.7%	101 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	44.0%	117 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	47.8%	126 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	61.6%	81 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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