Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas A&M 35.7, Missouri State 20.6 at Kyle Field in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Texas A&M wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.1 points and 56.3 combined points.
Missouri State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Texas A&M has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect Missouri State to find it hard going: Texas A&M's strong defense (14th) outranks Missouri State's below-average offense (116th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.4 points against an average defense). Texas A&M's strong offense (23rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Missouri State's struggling defense (128th); that mismatch is where most of Texas A&M's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Missouri State by 7 and Texas A&M by 38 about 80% of the time.
Texas A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas A&M by about 13. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Missouri State 0, Texas A&M 50. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 34.9 points and the total by 6.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Missouri State / Texas A&M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas A&M -38.5 → Texas A&M -39.5 | 52.5 → 53.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Texas A&M -38.5 → Texas A&M -40.5 | 52.5 → 53.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Texas A&M -38.5 | 53.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas A&M win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas A&M -15 | 56.3 | 84% |
| Market consensus | Texas A&M -39.5 | 53.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Texas A&M -35.5 | 54.2 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas A&M win probability
- model 84% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Texas A&M -15.1 · market Texas A&M -39.5 · difference -24.4 pts (Texas A&M view)
- Total
- model 56.3 · market 53.5 · difference +2.8
Model margin is 24.4 pts more toward Missouri State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Missouri State 20.6, Texas A&M 35.7 | Texas A&M 84%right winner | 34.9 | 6.3 |
| New formula | Missouri State 6.6, Texas A&M 51.4 | Texas A&M 100%right winner | 5.2 | 8.0 |
Final: Missouri State 0, Texas A&M 50. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Missouri State vs Texas A&M: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Missouri State | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.6#84 | 33.8#19 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8#93 | 21.0#36 |
| Yards per play | 6.56#23 | 6.51#24 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.28#112 | 5.18#24 |
| Rushing yards per game | 137.3#111 | 189.8#37 |
| Net passing yards per game | 286.9#11 | 258.8#34 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 163.0#74 | 151.6#51 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 238.1#104 | 161.3#5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#70 | 1.00#64 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85#97 | 0.69#117 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08#63 | 3.38#2 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.69#134 | 1.38#28 |
| Stat | Missouri State | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10#34 | +0.12#24 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#94 | -0.12#9 |
| Success rate | 40.8%#96 | 46.1%#28 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7%#85 | 33.3%#4 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.2%#13 | 14.8%#16 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6%#114 | 13.5%#108 |
| Havoc rate | 13.0%#59 | 16.2%#7 |
| Havoc allowed | 19.0%#136 | 9.6%#11 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.02#67 | 4.30#34 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.96#81 | 4.29#111 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#82 | own 33#9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#77 | own 27#14 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7#90 | 68.9#38 |
| Stat | Missouri State | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#76 | +0.12#21 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#30 | +0.11#36 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#56 | +0.02#81 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10#103 | -0.24#4 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.1%#123 | 46.9%#34 |
| Passing success rate | 42.2%#56 | 45.3%#27 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.8%#136 | 16.0%#31 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2%#60 | 29.7%#80 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.2%#30 | 22.3%#4 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.5%#96 | 43.2%#48 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.0%#89 | 24.7%#1 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.5%#48 | 62.1%#62 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.7%#93 | 58.8%#58 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Missouri State schedule · Texas A&M schedule · all Week 1 projections
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