Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Missouri State 27.7, Marshall 23.9 at Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Missouri State wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 51.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Marshall is 1-1, scoring 14 and allowing 35.5 points per game (-21.5 per game). Missouri State is 1-1, scoring 24 and allowing 32 points per game (-8 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Marshall's below-average offense (98th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.8 points against an average defense) against Missouri State's struggling defense (125th). Missouri State's below-average offense (114th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) meets Marshall's struggling defense (126th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Missouri State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Marshall by 19 and Missouri State by 26 about 80% of the time.
Missouri State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Missouri State by about 1.7. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Marshall 30, Missouri State 24. Marshall won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Marshall / Missouri State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Marshall -4.25 → Marshall -4 | 52.75 → 52.5 | -188.5 / +160 |
| Bovada | Marshall -4 | 52 → 52.5 | -185 / +160 |
| DraftKings | Marshall -4.5 → Marshall -4 | 53.5 → 52.5 | -192 / +160 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Missouri State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Missouri State -4 | 51.6 | 60% |
| Market consensus | Marshall -4 | 52.5 | 37% |
| Blended projection | Marshall -2.5 | 53.1 | 43% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Missouri State win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 37% · difference +23 pts
- Margin
- model Missouri State -3.8 · market Marshall -4 · difference +7.8 pts (Missouri State view)
- Total
- model 51.6 · market 52.5 · difference -0.9
Model margin is 7.8 pts more toward Missouri State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Marshall 23.9, Missouri State 27.7 | Missouri State 60%wrong winner | 9.8 | 2.4 |
| New formula | Marshall 27.4, Missouri State 31.3 | Missouri State 60%wrong winner | 9.9 | 4.8 |
Final: Marshall 30, Missouri State 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Marshall vs Missouri State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Marshall | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.0#134 | 24.0#102 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.5#127 | 32.0#121 |
| Yards per play | 4.45#132 | 5.67#102 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.69#122 | 5.26#69 |
| Rushing yards per game | 94.5#133 | 158.0#86 |
| Net passing yards per game | 150.5#124 | 173.5#109 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.5#84 | 191.5#115 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 330.5#135 | 168.5#47 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#71 | 0.50#72 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#120 | 1.00#84 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#126 | 2.50#49 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#60 | 1.00#61 |
| Stat | Marshall | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.00#110 | +0.11#58 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#117 | +0.05#82 |
| Success rate | 38.3%#108 | 37.5%#117 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2%#126 | 44.6%#114 |
| Explosive play rate | 7.4%#133 | 7.8%#132 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.3%#66 | 10.9%#56 |
| Havoc rate | 8.5%#136 | 21.7%#3 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.0%#113 | 6.3%#1 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.50#114 | 5.25#13 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.75#119 | 4.92#124 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#110 | own 30#89 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#101 | own 35#129 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 55.0#126 | 58.5#110 |
| Stat | Marshall | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#113 | +0.24#13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#84 | -0.04#108 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.19#13 | +0.08#98 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.31#127 | +0.01#69 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.4%#120 | 44.1%#77 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3%#83 | 30.0%#133 |
| Run stuff rate | 26.3%#135 | 16.4%#59 |
| Passing-down success rate | 20.7%#126 | 15.8%#133 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.3%#92 | 32.3%#100 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 21.7%#133 | 36.0%#96 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.4%#96 | 34.6%#58 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 100.0%#5 | 83.3%#12 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 83.3%#125 | 77.8%#116 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Marshall schedule · Missouri State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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