Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Missouri State 28.5, Sam Houston 24 at Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Missouri State wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.5 points and 52.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Sam Houston is 1-6, scoring 20.1 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-5.2 per game). Missouri State is 2-5, scoring 24.4 and allowing 34.9 points per game (-10.5 per game).
Sam Houston's struggling offense (137th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 13.7 points against an average defense) meets Missouri State's struggling defense (128th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Sam Houston puts up. Missouri State's below-average offense (116th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.4 points against an average defense) meets Sam Houston's struggling defense (123rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Missouri State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sam Houston by 18 and Missouri State by 27 about 80% of the time.
Missouri State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Missouri State by about 2.4. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Sam Houston 3, Missouri State 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.5 points and the total by 25.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Sam Houston / Missouri State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Missouri State -5.5 | 51.5 | +175 / -210 |
| Opening line | Missouri State -6.5 | 49.5 | +215 / -265 |
| DraftKings | Missouri State -5.5 | 51.5 | +180 / -218 |
| FanDuel | Missouri State -5.5 | 51.5 | +160 / -192 |
| BetRivers | Missouri State -5.5 | 52.5 | +175 / -225 |
| BetMGM | Missouri State -6 | 51.5 | +175 / -210 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Missouri State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Missouri State -4.5 | 52.5 | 62% |
| Market consensus | Missouri State -5.5 | 51.5 | 66% |
| Blended projection | Missouri State -5.5 | 52.2 | 64% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Missouri State win probability
- model 62% · market (no-vig) 66% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Missouri State -4.5 · market Missouri State -5.5 · difference -1.0 pts (Missouri State view)
- Total
- model 52.5 · market 51.5 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Sam Houston than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Sam Houston 24.0, Missouri State 28.5 | Missouri State 62%right winner | 16.5 | 25.5 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Sam Houston 3, Missouri State 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Sam Houston | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.8#127 | 25.6#84 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.8#133 | 28.8#93 |
| Yards per play | 5.27#115 | 6.56#23 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.11#134 | 6.28#112 |
| Rushing yards per game | 149.2#90 | 137.3#111 |
| Net passing yards per game | 183.8#109 | 286.9#11 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.3#121 | 163.0#74 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 279.0#132 | 238.1#104 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33#110 | 1.00#70 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17#56 | 0.85#97 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#96 | 2.08#63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#125 | 3.69#134 |
| Stat | Sam Houston | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12#129 | +0.10#34 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#100 | +0.05#94 |
| Success rate | 38.1%#116 | 40.8%#96 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.3%#127 | 42.7%#85 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5%#96 | 15.2%#13 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.9%#134 | 13.6%#114 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#83 | 13.0%#59 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.0%#132 | 19.0%#136 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.03#129 | 4.02#67 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.94#76 | 3.96#81 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#118 | own 29#82 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#116 | own 30#77 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.2#108 | 64.7#90 |
| Stat | Sam Houston | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#104 | +0.02#76 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.20#133 | +0.15#30 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#50 | -0.01#56 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14#113 | +0.10#103 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.3%#107 | 37.1%#123 |
| Passing success rate | 34.7%#122 | 42.2%#56 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.2%#131 | 24.8%#136 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.5%#132 | 31.2%#60 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.9%#119 | 27.2%#30 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.9%#136 | 38.5%#96 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.3%#131 | 42.0%#89 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.1%#135 | 64.5%#48 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.2%#63 | 63.7%#93 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sam Houston schedule · Missouri State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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