Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kennesaw State 25.7, Missouri State 24.1 at Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Kennesaw State wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 49.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Kennesaw State is 1-4, scoring 22.6 and allowing 23.4 points per game (-0.8 per game). Missouri State is 1-4, scoring 21.8 and allowing 32.4 points per game (-10.6 per game).
Kennesaw State's below-average offense (115th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense) meets Missouri State's struggling defense (126th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Kennesaw State puts up. Kennesaw State's below-average defense (101st) should limit Missouri State's below-average offense (116th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kennesaw State by 24 and Missouri State by 21 about 80% of the time.
Missouri State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Kennesaw State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Kennesaw State 21, Missouri State 24. Missouri State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 4.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kennesaw State / Missouri State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kennesaw State -3 → Kennesaw State -2.5 | 51 → 52.5 | -153.5 / +130 |
| DraftKings | Kennesaw State -3 → Kennesaw State -2.5 | 50.5 → 52.5 | -142 / +120 |
| Bovada | Kennesaw State -3 → Kennesaw State -2.5 | 51.5 → 52.5 | -165 / +140 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Missouri State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kennesaw State -1.5 | 49.7 | 46% |
| Market consensus | Kennesaw State -2.5 | 52.5 | 42% |
| Blended projection | Kennesaw State -2.5 | 52.9 | 44% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Missouri State win probability
- model 46% · market (no-vig) 42% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Kennesaw State -1.6 · market Kennesaw State -2.5 · difference +0.9 pts (Missouri State view)
- Total
- model 49.7 · market 52.5 · difference -2.8
Model margin is 0.9 pts more toward Missouri State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kennesaw State 25.7, Missouri State 24.1 | Kennesaw State 54%wrong winner | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| New formula | Kennesaw State 26.2, Missouri State 23.9 | Kennesaw State 56%wrong winner | 5.2 | 5.1 |
Final: Kennesaw State 21, Missouri State 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kennesaw State vs Missouri State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.6#106 | 21.8#111 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.4#69 | 32.4#122 |
| Yards per play | 5.97#81 | 5.66#99 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.81#87 | 6.37#119 |
| Rushing yards per game | 163.8#75 | 152.4#92 |
| Net passing yards per game | 222.8#71 | 198.4#93 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 151.6#65 | 200.0#123 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.8#89 | 257.2#124 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.80#55 | 0.80#60 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40#128 | 0.80#91 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#125 | 1.20#118 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#24 | 2.20#104 |
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#58 | +0.03#101 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#107 | +0.10#105 |
| Success rate | 44.9%#52 | 40.5%#106 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.1%#123 | 44.3%#108 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4%#105 | 10.2%#121 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#73 | 13.0%#100 |
| Havoc rate | 10.7%#128 | 14.9%#48 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6%#22 | 13.8%#92 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.39#48 | 4.11#71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.40#111 | 4.15#96 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#122 | own 25#135 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#48 | own 33#129 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8#76 | 62.0#106 |
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#22 | +0.09#65 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#78 | -0.02#110 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | 0.00#54 | +0.07#86 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21#115 | +0.12#99 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.0%#38 | 49.2%#28 |
| Passing success rate | 41.9%#76 | 32.4%#130 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.6%#95 | 17.9%#87 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.3%#53 | 24.8%#122 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7%#107 | 31.1%#92 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.0%#47 | 32.4%#123 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.1%#50 | 47.8%#126 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.9%#99 | 49.9%#124 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.0%#132 | 56.7%#59 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kennesaw State schedule · Missouri State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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