Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Kentucky 29.8, Missouri State 26.3 at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Western Kentucky wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 56 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Missouri State is 1-3, scoring 24 and allowing 32 points per game (-8 per game). Western Kentucky is 1-4, scoring 19.8 and allowing 39.6 points per game (-19.8 per game).
Missouri State's below-average offense (110th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21 points against an average defense) meets Western Kentucky's struggling defense (124th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Missouri State puts up. Western Kentucky's below-average offense (104th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Missouri State's struggling defense (125th); that mismatch is where most of Western Kentucky's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Missouri State by 19 and Western Kentucky by 26 about 80% of the time.
Western Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Kentucky by about 1.4. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Missouri State 13, Western Kentucky 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17.5 points and the total by 9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Missouri State / Western Kentucky) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Western Kentucky -2.5 → Missouri State -1.75 | 56 → 56.75 | -6 / -14 |
| DraftKings | Western Kentucky -2.5 → Missouri State -1.5 | 56.5 | -122 / +102 |
| Bovada | Western Kentucky -2.5 → Missouri State -2 | 55.5 → 57 | +110 / -130 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Western Kentucky win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Kentucky -3.5 | 56.0 | 59% |
| Market consensus | Missouri State -1.5 | 56.8 | 51% |
| Blended projection | Missouri State -1 | 57.0 | 48% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Western Kentucky win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) 51% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Western Kentucky -3.5 · market Missouri State -1.75 · difference +5.3 pts (Western Kentucky view)
- Total
- model 56.0 · market 56.75 · difference -0.7
Model margin is 5.3 pts more toward Western Kentucky than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Missouri State 26.3, Western Kentucky 29.8 | Western Kentucky 59%right winner | 17.5 | 9.0 |
| New formula | Missouri State 27.0, Western Kentucky 29.3 | Western Kentucky 56%right winner | 18.7 | 9.4 |
Final: Missouri State 13, Western Kentucky 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Missouri State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.0#102 | 19.8#117 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.0#122 | 39.6#135 |
| Yards per play | 5.82#91 | 5.21#123 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.38#117 | 6.82#126 |
| Rushing yards per game | 152.0#97 | 128.4#119 |
| Net passing yards per game | 201.5#93 | 236.4#63 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.8#115 | 218.0#131 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 261.0#125 | 199.4#62 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#61 | 1.20#107 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#72 | 0.40#129 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#105 | 0.80#133 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.25#101 | 2.60#119 |
| Stat | Missouri State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#95 | -0.07#125 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#106 | +0.12#108 |
| Success rate | 40.8%#101 | 36.6%#127 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0%#121 | 45.3%#117 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6%#117 | 9.8%#126 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9%#114 | 16.3%#132 |
| Havoc rate | 15.5%#37 | 10.3%#132 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0%#92 | 15.7%#119 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.47#49 | 3.76#100 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.29#107 | 5.14#134 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#126 | own 27#117 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#124 | own 32#122 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.8#113 | 70.0#31 |
| Stat | Missouri State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#85 | -0.18#137 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#94 | +0.00#101 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#86 | +0.10#104 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16#104 | +0.14#100 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.3%#51 | 37.4%#117 |
| Passing success rate | 35.4%#126 | 36.1%#121 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8%#71 | 22.4%#129 |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.4%#132 | 29.7%#85 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6%#101 | 38.0%#129 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.7%#124 | 43.8%#62 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.0%#121 | 37.3%#64 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.3%#94 | 75.0%#15 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.1%#79 | 84.2%#133 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Missouri State schedule · Western Kentucky schedule · all Week 6 projections
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