2026 schedule
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
2026 season so far
Western Kentucky is 3-5 against the 89th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.3 and allowing 31.1 points per game (-9.8 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Western Kentucky ranks 114th of 139 FBS teams overall — 115th on offense and 107th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: at Middle Tennessee in Week 10. We project Western Kentucky 29, Middle Tennessee 24 — Western Kentucky wins 61% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- at
Nevada Wolf Pack
1-0 · SOS #112
Loss 14-49
Week 1
Our number· model now
Nevada by 5
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
Final Nevada by 35. 63 points. No book line was saved for this game.
CBSSN Mackay Stadium - at
#2 Georgia Bulldogs
2-0 · SOS #52
Loss 20-70
Week 2
Our number· model now
Georgia by 39
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgia by 50. 90 points. No book line was saved for this game.
SEC Network Sanford Stadium - at
#4 Indiana Hoosiers
3-0 · SOS #32
Loss 0-38
Week 3
Our number· model now
Indiana by 39
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
Final Indiana by 38. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Peacock Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) - vs
Mercyhurst Lakers
1-4 · SOS #39
Win 52-7
Week 4
Our number· model now
Western Kentucky by 23
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Kentucky by 45. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind 6 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBWG)ESPN+ Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium - at
New Mexico State Aggies
2-3 · SOS #114
Loss 13-34
Week 5
Our number· model now
Western Kentucky by 1
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
Final New Mexico State by 21. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 71°F, Wind 5 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLRU)CBSSN Aggie Memorial Stadium - vs
Missouri State Bears
1-4 · SOS #108
Win 34-13
Week 6
Our number· model now
Western Kentucky by 5
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Kentucky by 21. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBWG)CBSSN Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium - at
Sam Houston Bearkats
1-5 · SOS #118
Win 16-3
Week 7
Our number· model now
Western Kentucky by 6
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Kentucky by 13. 19 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly clear, 86°F, Wind 10 mph SE, 3% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 11, 8:43 AM EDT · last stored copyESPN Elliott T. Bowers Stadium - vs
Delaware Blue Hens
4-4 · SOS #116
Loss 21-35
Week 9
Our number· model now
Delaware by 1
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Delaware by 14. 56 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBWG)CBSSN Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium - at
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
4-4 · SOS #125
Sat, Nov 7, 8:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 29-24 · 61%
Our number
Western Kentucky by 5
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium - vs
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
6-2 · SOS #119
Sat, Nov 14, 8:30 PM
Week 11
Proj 23-28 · 38%
Our number
Jacksonville State by 5
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium - at
Liberty Flames
6-1 · SOS #134
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 16-32 · 15%
Our number
Liberty by 16
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Williams Stadium (VA) - vs
Kennesaw State Owls
2-6 · SOS #96
Sat, Nov 28, 6:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 26-24 · 56%
Our number
Western Kentucky by 2
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-11.1
113th in FBS
Adj. offense
20.5
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
31.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 21.3 | 114 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 31.1 | 119 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.19 | 126 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.11 | 103 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 148.9 | 99 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 221.1 | 74 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 189.3 | 112 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 185.1 | 36 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.86 | 69 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.57 | 120 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.29 | 119 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.14 | 96 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.01 | 119 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.01 | 38 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 38.4% | 124 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 39.2% | 41 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.8% | 120 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.5% | 87 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.1% | 93 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.1% | 98 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.62 | 105 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.11 | 102 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 28 | 111 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 31 | 104 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 71.3 | 12 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.08 | 129 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.05 | 85 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.04 | 76 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.07 | 31 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 38.3% | 118 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 34.4% | 128 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.8% | 112 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.6% | 78 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 29.0% | 63 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 44.5% | 38 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 34.1% | 28 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 58.1% | 92 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 67.1% | 107 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.