Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Kentucky 27.1, Sam Houston 25.7 at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Western Kentucky wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 52.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Western Kentucky is 2-4, scoring 22.2 and allowing 35.2 points per game (-13 per game). Sam Houston is 1-4, scoring 22.8 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-3.4 per game).
Western Kentucky's below-average offense (103rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Sam Houston's struggling defense (119th); that mismatch is where most of Western Kentucky's projected points come from. Sam Houston's struggling offense (124th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.4 points against an average defense) meets Western Kentucky's below-average defense (115th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Sam Houston puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Kentucky by 24 and Sam Houston by 21 about 80% of the time.
Sam Houston gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Western Kentucky is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Western Kentucky 16, Sam Houston 3. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.6 points and the total by 33.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Kentucky / Sam Houston) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Western Kentucky -1.25 | 51.5 → 53.5 | -113.5 / -106.5 |
| DraftKings | Western Kentucky -1.5 | 51.5 → 53.5 | -112 / -108 |
| Bovada | Western Kentucky -1 | 51.5 → 53.5 | -115 / -105 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Sam Houston win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Kentucky -1.5 | 52.8 | 46% |
| Market consensus | Western Kentucky -1 | 53.5 | 49% |
| Blended projection | Western Kentucky -1.5 | 54.0 | 47% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Sam Houston win probability
- model 46% · market (no-vig) 49% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Western Kentucky -1.4 · market Western Kentucky -1.25 · difference -0.1 pts (Sam Houston view)
- Total
- model 52.8 · market 53.5 · difference -0.7
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Kentucky 27.1, Sam Houston 25.7 | Western Kentucky 54%right winner | 11.6 | 33.8 |
| New formula | Western Kentucky 27.5, Sam Houston 25.8 | Western Kentucky 54%right winner | 11.3 | 34.3 |
Final: Western Kentucky 16, Sam Houston 3. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.2#109 | 22.8#105 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.2#132 | 26.2#95 |
| Yards per play | 5.41#113 | 5.85#85 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.51#123 | 5.64#77 |
| Rushing yards per game | 145.8#102 | 120.8#127 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.3#60 | 267.8#29 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 207.3#127 | 223.2#133 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 197.2#61 | 131.0#3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#94 | 0.80#58 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#123 | 0.80#90 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#130 | 2.00#75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17#98 | 2.40#108 |
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#116 | -0.07#129 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#89 | -0.04#29 |
| Success rate | 38.3%#122 | 42.5%#77 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3%#98 | 42.5%#91 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.3%#119 | 10.1%#122 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.1%#113 | 13.8%#112 |
| Havoc rate | 10.4%#133 | 17.5%#14 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.6%#104 | 17.2%#132 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.79#97 | 3.29#120 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.90#131 | 3.96#79 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#99 | own 27#116 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#110 | own 29#78 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.8#22 | 66.4#62 |
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#129 | -0.18#137 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#96 | -0.01#108 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#112 | +0.18#130 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#63 | -0.31#1 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.8%#99 | 40.0%#105 |
| Passing success rate | 36.3%#116 | 44.0%#56 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4%#116 | 22.3%#131 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.8%#89 | 32.5%#65 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.1%#115 | 26.1%#37 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.4%#42 | 40.0%#82 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0%#47 | 31.1%#17 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.7%#42 | 61.5%#77 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 76.0%#126 | 64.7%#98 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Kentucky schedule · Sam Houston schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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