Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Kentucky 26.8, Nevada 23.6 at Mackay Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Western Kentucky wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 50.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Western Kentucky has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Nevada has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect Western Kentucky to find it hard going: Nevada's below-average defense (93rd) outranks Western Kentucky's below-average offense (115th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.5 points against an average defense). Nevada's below-average offense (106th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense) meets Western Kentucky's below-average defense (107th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Nevada puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Kentucky by 26 and Nevada by 19 about 80% of the time.
Nevada gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Western Kentucky is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Western Kentucky 14, Nevada 49. Nevada won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 38.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Kentucky / Nevada) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Western Kentucky -4.25 → Western Kentucky -0.25 | 53.5 → 51.5 | -126 / +6 |
| DraftKings | Western Kentucky -4.5 → Western Kentucky -1.5 | 51.5 | -112 / -108 |
| Bovada | Western Kentucky -4 → Nevada -1 | 53.5 → 51.5 | -140 / +120 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Nevada win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Kentucky -3 | 50.4 | 42% |
| Market consensus | Pick'em | 51.5 | 47% |
| Blended projection | Western Kentucky -0.5 | 52.1 | 48% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Nevada win probability
- model 42% · market (no-vig) 47% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Western Kentucky -3.2 · market Western Kentucky -0.25 · difference -2.9 pts (Nevada view)
- Total
- model 50.4 · market 51.5 · difference -1.1
Model margin is 2.9 pts more toward Western Kentucky than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Kentucky 26.8, Nevada 23.6 | Western Kentucky 58%wrong winner | 38.2 | 12.6 |
| New formula | Western Kentucky 24.6, Nevada 27.6 | Nevada 57%right winner | 32.0 | 10.8 |
Final: Western Kentucky 14, Nevada 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Kentucky vs Nevada: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.5#49 | 17.6#128 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.8#49 | 27.5#87 |
| Yards per play | 6.17#41 | 5.32#110 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.77#65 | 5.94#87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.6#96 | 165.3#73 |
| Net passing yards per game | 282.3#14 | 152.0#125 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 186.5#103 | 160.6#66 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 228.7#91 | 223.3#80 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.31#104 | 1.75#134 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85#91 | 0.92#87 |
| Sacks per game | 1.38#112 | 1.50#106 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.77#68 | 1.50#40 |
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00#88 | -0.13#131 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#49 | +0.03#84 |
| Success rate | 42.7%#58 | 37.0%#124 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.2%#27 | 43.3%#93 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#31 | 11.6%#93 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2%#97 | 11.2%#41 |
| Havoc rate | 12.2%#77 | 10.7%#117 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.3%#79 | 13.2%#99 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.19#39 | 2.95#134 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.20#14 | 4.34#115 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#110 | own 30#55 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#70 | own 29#49 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.5#33 | 59.6#131 |
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#55 | +0.02#78 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04#99 | -0.31#136 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#58 | +0.07#114 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#54 | -0.01#62 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.9%#53 | 36.8%#125 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3%#62 | 35.6%#120 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8%#83 | 17.2%#51 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.3%#24 | 24.2%#125 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3%#49 | 27.6%#36 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0%#25 | 34.2%#125 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.8%#35 | 39.9%#58 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.0%#40 | 46.4%#128 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 40.8%#4 | 59.7%#67 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Kentucky schedule · Nevada schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.