2026 schedule
Nevada Wolf Pack
2026 season so far
Nevada is 3-4 against the 112th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.3 and allowing 22 points per game (+4.3 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Nevada ranks 99th of 139 FBS teams overall — 106th on offense and 93rd on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: at UCLA in Week 9. We project Nevada 14, UCLA 34 — Nevada wins 10% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
0-1 · SOS #89
Win 49-14
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Western Kentucky by 3.2
Total 50.4
DraftKings
WKU -1.5
Total 51.5
Final Nevada by 35. Nevada beat the spread. 63 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Western Kentucky -0.25 (open Western Kentucky -4.25) · O/U 51.5 (open 53.5) · ML -126 / +6 · Nevada 47% no-vig · model vs market -2.9 pts, -5 pct pts (Nevada view)
CBSSN Mackay Stadium - vs
Montana State Bobcats
3-0 · SOS #55
Loss 7-20
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Nevada by 16
Total 52
DraftKings
MTST -4.5
Total 51.5
Final Montana State by 13. Montana State beat the spread. 27 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Montana State -5 (open Montana State -4) · O/U 51.5 (open 49.5) · ML -192.5 / +162.5 · Nevada 37% no-vig · model vs market +21.0 pts, +49 pct pts (Nevada view)
CW Mackay Stadium - at
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
2-1 · SOS #125
Loss 20-27
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Middle Tennessee by 2.2
Total 49.8
DraftKings
NEV -3.5
Total 50.5
Final Middle Tennessee by 7. Middle Tennessee beat the spread. 47 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Nevada -3.75 (open Nevada -6) · O/U 50.5 (open 50.25) · ML -200 / +165 · Middle Tennessee 36% no-vig · model vs market +5.9 pts, +20 pct pts (Middle Tennessee view)
ESPN+ Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium - vs
Air Force Falcons
2-1 · SOS #105
Loss 33-36
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Nevada by 1.4
Total 50.6
DraftKings
AFA -4.5
Total 50.5
Final Air Force by 3. Nevada beat the spread. 69 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Air Force -5.25 (open Air Force -4.25) · O/U 50.5 (open 48.75) · ML -207.5 / +175 · Nevada 35% no-vig · model vs market +6.6 pts, +19 pct pts (Nevada view)
FS1 Mackay Stadium - at
UTEP Miners
1-5 · SOS #76
Win 30-13
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Nevada by 8.7
Total 53.7
DraftKings
NEV -10
Total 48.5
Final Nevada by 17. Nevada beat the spread. 43 points — under the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Nevada -10 (open Nevada -9.25) · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · ML -367.5 / +287.5 · UTEP 25% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, +4 pct pts (UTEP view)
FS1 Sun Bowl - at
North Dakota State Bison
6-1 · SOS #123
Loss 17-31
Week 7
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 18.1
Total 46.3
DraftKings
NDSU -14.5
Total 42.5
Final North Dakota State by 14. Nevada beat the spread. 48 points — over the 42.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -14.25 (open North Dakota State -15) · O/U 42.75 (open 46.25) · ML +500 / -725 · North Dakota State 84% no-vig · model vs market +3.9 pts, +4 pct pts (North Dakota State view)
CBSSN Fargodome - vs
San José State Spartans
4-4 · SOS #121
Win 28-13
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Nevada by 5.6
Total 48
DraftKings
NEV -6
Total 46.5
Final Nevada by 15. Nevada beat the spread. 41 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Nevada -6 · O/U 46.5 · ML +185 / -230 · Nevada 65% no-vig · model vs market -0.4 pts, -1 pct pts (Nevada view)
MW+ Mackay Stadium - at
#7 UCLA Bruins
7-0 · SOS #42
Sat, Oct 31, 8:15 PM
Week 9
Proj 14-34 · 10%
Our number
UCLA by 20
Total 48
DraftKings
UCLA -22.5
Total 44.5
We're 2.5 points higher on Nevada than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: UCLA -22.5 · O/U 44.5 · ML +976.5 / -1950 · UCLA 91% no-vig · model vs market -2.5 pts, -1 pct pts (UCLA view)
BTN Rose Bowl - vs
New Mexico Lobos
6-1 · SOS #129
Sat, Nov 7, 2:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 18-30 · 20%
Our number
New Mexico by 12
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Mackay Stadium - at
Northern Illinois Huskies
0-7 · SOS #59
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 30-21 · 73%
Our number
Nevada by 9
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
MW+ Huskie Stadium - vs
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
2-6 · SOS #100
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 27-22 · 62%
Our number
Nevada by 5
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Mackay Stadium - at
UNLV Rebels
4-3 · SOS #82
Sun, Nov 29, 2:00 AM
Week 13
Proj 21-28 · 31%
Our number
UNLV by 7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Allegiant Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Nevada Wolf Pack stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-7.9
98th in FBS
Adj. offense
21.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
29.3
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 26.3 | 88 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 22.0 | 54 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.61 | 104 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 4.78 | 13 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 190.7 | 44 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 173.0 | 119 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 181.4 | 103 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 140.6 | 4 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.71 | 137 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.43 | 128 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.43 | 42 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.29 | 35 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.00 | 114 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.00 | 44 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.4% | 105 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 37.6% | 30 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.0% | 86 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 9.4% | 13 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 15.5% | 32 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.8% | 108 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.39 | 44 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.02 | 91 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 30 | 71 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 32 | 125 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 64.9 | 77 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.08 | 73 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.08 | 125 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.01 | 47 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.01 | 42 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 47.2% | 39 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 33.5% | 131 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 21.8% | 128 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 31.0% | 72 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 26.2% | 30 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 40.9% | 71 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 30.2% | 9 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 59.4% | 85 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 63.2% | 89 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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