Matchup analysis
Our model projects New Mexico 30, Nevada 18 at Mackay Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: New Mexico wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.7 points and 47.7 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
New Mexico is 6-1 against the 129th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37 and allowing 11.3 points per game (+25.7 per game). Nevada is 3-4 against the 112th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.3 and allowing 22 points per game (+4.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: New Mexico's middle-of-the-pack offense (47th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29 points against an average defense) against Nevada's below-average defense (93rd). New Mexico's strong defense (34th) should limit Nevada's below-average offense (106th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico by 35 and Nevada by 10 about 80% of the time.
Nevada gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. New Mexico is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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New Mexico vs Nevada: stat comparison
| Stat | New Mexico | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.0#19 | 26.3#88 |
| Points allowed per game | 11.3#1 | 22.0#54 |
| Yards per play | 5.75#91 | 5.61#104 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.27#45 | 4.78#13 |
| Rushing yards per game | 219.9#19 | 190.7#44 |
| Net passing yards per game | 141.4#131 | 173.0#119 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 107.1#9 | 181.4#103 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.0#54 | 140.6#4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#36 | 1.71#137 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.71#1 | 0.43#128 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86#15 | 2.43#42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#109 | 1.29#35 |
| Stat | New Mexico | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#76 | +0.00#114 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.12#6 | -0.00#44 |
| Success rate | 41.3%#95 | 40.4%#105 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.7%#10 | 37.6%#30 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#44 | 12.0%#86 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#60 | 9.4%#13 |
| Havoc rate | 18.9%#3 | 15.5%#32 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3%#117 | 14.8%#108 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.95#86 | 4.39#44 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.21#20 | 4.02#91 |
| Average starting field position | own 40#1 | own 30#71 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#6 | own 32#125 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.9#98 | 64.9#77 |
| Stat | New Mexico | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#59 | +0.08#73 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#92 | -0.08#125 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10#10 | -0.01#47 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13#16 | -0.01#42 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.2%#89 | 47.2%#39 |
| Passing success rate | 39.2%#96 | 33.5%#131 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5%#62 | 21.8%#128 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4%#66 | 31.0%#72 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.4%#19 | 26.2%#30 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#83 | 40.9%#71 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4%#54 | 30.2%#9 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#44 | 59.4%#85 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.9%#15 | 63.2%#89 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Mexico schedule · Nevada schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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