2026 schedule
New Mexico Lobos
2026 season so far
New Mexico is 6-1 against the 129th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37 and allowing 11.3 points per game (+25.7 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings New Mexico ranks 38th of 139 FBS teams overall — 47th on offense and 34th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: at San José State in Week 9. We project New Mexico 32, San José State 16 — New Mexico wins 86% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
Central Michigan Chippewas
0-1 · SOS #71
Win 38-7
Week 1
Our number· model now
New Mexico by 21
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
Final New Mexico by 31. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
FS1 University Stadium (NM) - vs
Mercyhurst Lakers
0-3 · SOS #39
Win 70-7
Week 2
Our number· model now
New Mexico by 43
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
Final New Mexico by 63. 77 points. No book line was saved for this game.
MW+ University Stadium (NM) - at
#24 Oklahoma Sooners
2-1 · SOS #9
Loss 6-14
Week 3
Our number· model now
Oklahoma by 8
Total 38
Book line
Not posted
Final Oklahoma by 8. 20 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPNEWS Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) - at
New Mexico State Aggies
1-3 · SOS #114
Win 42-18
Week 4
Our number· model now
New Mexico by 18
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
Final New Mexico by 24. 60 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 83°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLRU)CBSSN Aggie Memorial Stadium - vs
UTEP Miners
1-4 · SOS #76
Win 61-7
Week 5
Our number· model now
New Mexico by 34
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
Final New Mexico by 54. 68 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABQ)MW+ University Stadium (NM) - at
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
1-6 · SOS #100
Win 21-10
Week 7
Our number· model now
New Mexico by 16
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
Final New Mexico by 11. 31 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 80°F, Wind 13 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (PHNL)FS1 Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - vs
North Dakota State Bison
6-2 · SOS #123
Win 21-16
Week 8
Our number· model now
New Mexico by 4
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
Final New Mexico by 5. 37 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 61°F, Wind 3 mph SSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABQ)CW University Stadium (NM) - at
San José State Spartans
4-4 · SOS #121
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 32-16 · 86%
Our number
New Mexico by 16
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance light rain, 64°F, Wind calm, 16% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTMW+ CEFCU Stadium - at
Nevada Wolf Pack
3-4 · SOS #112
Sat, Nov 7, 2:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 30-18 · 80%
Our number
New Mexico by 12
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Mackay Stadium - vs
UNLV Rebels
4-3 · SOS #82
Sun, Nov 15, 12:30 AM
Week 11
Proj 31-19 · 77%
Our number
New Mexico by 12
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW University Stadium (NM) - at
Wyoming Cowboys
5-3 · SOS #130
Sun, Nov 22, 2:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 28-13 · 83%
Our number
New Mexico by 15
Total 41
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
FS1 War Memorial Stadium - vs
Air Force Falcons
5-2 · SOS #105
Sat, Nov 28, 9:30 PM
Week 13
Proj 32-20 · 78%
Our number
New Mexico by 12
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW University Stadium (NM)
Times shown in your local time
New Mexico Lobos stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+6.5
38th in FBS
Adj. offense
29.0
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
22.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 37.0 | 19 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 11.3 | 1 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.75 | 91 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.27 | 45 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 219.9 | 19 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 141.4 | 131 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 107.1 | 9 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 200.0 | 54 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.57 | 36 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 2.71 | 1 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.86 | 15 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.43 | 109 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.07 | 76 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.12 | 6 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.3% | 95 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 34.7% | 10 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.7% | 44 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.2% | 60 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 18.9% | 3 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.3% | 117 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.95 | 86 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.21 | 20 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 40 | 1 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 25 | 6 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 62.9 | 98 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.10 | 59 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.04 | 92 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.10 | 10 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.13 | 16 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 42.2% | 89 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 39.2% | 96 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.5% | 62 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 31.4% | 66 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 25.4% | 19 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 40.0% | 83 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 37.4% | 54 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 66.7% | 44 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 45.9% | 15 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.