Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected New Mexico 35.6, Hawai'i 16.4 at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: New Mexico wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19.2 points and 51.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
New Mexico is 4-1, scoring 43.4 and allowing 10.6 points per game (+32.8 per game). Hawai'i is 1-5, scoring 16.7 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-9 per game).
New Mexico's strong offense (35th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Hawai'i's below-average defense (117th); that mismatch is where most of New Mexico's projected points come from. Expect Hawai'i to find it hard going: New Mexico's strong defense (37th) outranks Hawai'i's struggling offense (129th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico by 42 and Hawai'i by 3 about 80% of the time.
Hawai'i gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. New Mexico is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FS1.
Result: New Mexico 21, Hawai'i 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.2 points and the total by 20.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Mexico / Hawai'i) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | New Mexico -14.75 → New Mexico -14.5 | 47.5 → 46 | -662.5 / +470 |
| DraftKings | New Mexico -15.5 → New Mexico -14.5 | 48.5 → 46.5 | -675 / +490 |
| Bovada | New Mexico -14 → New Mexico -14.5 | 46.5 → 45.5 | -650 / +450 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Hawai'i win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | New Mexico -19 | 51.9 | 10% |
| Market consensus | New Mexico -14.5 | 46.0 | 17% |
| Blended projection | New Mexico -15.5 | 47.4 | 15% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Hawai'i win probability
- model 10% · market (no-vig) 17% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model New Mexico -19.2 · market New Mexico -14.5 · difference -4.7 pts (Hawai'i view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 46 · difference +5.9
Model margin is 4.7 pts more toward New Mexico than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Mexico 35.6, Hawai'i 16.4 | New Mexico 90%right winner | 8.2 | 20.9 |
| New formula | New Mexico 36.5, Hawai'i 14.5 | New Mexico 93%right winner | 10.9 | 20.0 |
Final: New Mexico 21, Hawai'i 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Mexico vs Hawai'i: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | New Mexico | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 43.4#5 | 16.7#129 |
| Points allowed per game | 10.6#3 | 25.7#89 |
| Yards per play | 6.00#79 | 5.09#125 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.30#52 | 6.38#120 |
| Rushing yards per game | 226.8#22 | 100.3#137 |
| Net passing yards per game | 161.8#124 | 259.3#38 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 126.8#35 | 184.2#108 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 171.2#26 | 217.8#90 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.20#10 | 0.67#48 |
| Takeaways per game | 3.20#1 | 0.33#132 |
| Sacks per game | 3.20#9 | 1.33#113 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.60#115 | 2.83#126 |
| Stat | New Mexico | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#72 | +0.05#89 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.09#16 | +0.14#115 |
| Success rate | 43.3%#68 | 39.8%#113 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.5%#17 | 46.6%#127 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2%#37 | 10.5%#114 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2%#31 | 13.3%#103 |
| Havoc rate | 17.5%#13 | 11.6%#115 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#65 | 14.4%#101 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.11#70 | 3.10#127 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.98#8 | 4.41#112 |
| Average starting field position | own 43#1 | own 26#130 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 23#2 | own 26#20 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8#77 | 70.7#23 |
| Stat | New Mexico | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#39 | +0.03#97 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#98 | +0.07#82 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#36 | +0.11#109 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13#18 | +0.17#106 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.3%#37 | 43.6%#81 |
| Passing success rate | 39.6%#95 | 37.5%#112 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.8%#26 | 17.8%#86 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.5%#71 | 25.7%#118 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.6%#27 | 31.5%#95 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.2%#65 | 38.8%#86 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.9%#64 | 41.6%#96 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.1%#47 | 36.2%#135 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.1%#16 | 72.6%#119 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Mexico schedule · Hawai'i schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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