2026 schedule
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
2026 season so far
Hawai'i is 2-6 against the 97th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.8 and allowing 24.5 points per game (-3.7 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Hawai'i ranks 112th of 139 FBS teams overall — 118th on offense and 102nd on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: at UTEP in Week 10. We project Hawai'i 31, UTEP 20 — Hawai'i wins 78% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Stanford Cardinal
1-0 · SOS #14
Loss 27-37
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Stanford by 1.9
Total 52.5
DraftKings
STAN -4.5
Total 48.5
Final Stanford by 10. Stanford beat the spread. 64 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stanford -4.75 (open Stanford -3) · O/U 48.5 (open 50.5) · ML +157.5 / -187.5 · Stanford 63% no-vig · model vs market -2.9 pts, -8 pct pts (Stanford view)
ACC Network Stanford Stadium - vs
UNLV Rebels
1-1 · SOS #82
Loss 6-21
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Hawai'i by 1.7
Total 60.1
DraftKings
UNLV -2.5
Total 55.5
Final UNLV by 15. UNLV beat the spread. 27 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UNLV -2.75 (open UNLV -1.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 58.5) · ML -146 / +125 · Hawai'i 43% no-vig · model vs market +4.4 pts, +12 pct pts (Hawai'i view)
CW Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - vs
New Mexico State Aggies
1-2 · SOS #115
Win 29-19
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Hawai'i by 7.4
Total 50.6
DraftKings
HAW -7.5
Total 50.5
Final Hawai'i by 10. Hawai'i beat the spread. 48 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Hawai'i -7.5 (open Hawai'i -10.75) · O/U 50.25 (open 51) · ML +272.5 / -354 · Hawai'i 74% no-vig · model vs market -0.1 pts, -6 pct pts (Hawai'i view)
MW+ Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - at
Wyoming Cowboys
2-2 · SOS #130
Loss 10-27
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Wyoming by 1.1
Total 44.9
DraftKings
HAW -2.5
Total 44.5
Final Wyoming by 17. Wyoming beat the spread. 37 points — under the 44.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Hawai'i -2.25 (open Hawai'i -4.25) · O/U 44.5 (open 45.25) · ML -142.5 / +120 · Wyoming 44% no-vig · model vs market +3.4 pts, +9 pct pts (Wyoming view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 75°F, Wind 11 mph W.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLAR)CW War Memorial Stadium - vs
San José State Spartans
3-2 · SOS #120
Loss 16-20
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Hawai'i by 2.3
Total 51.3
DraftKings
HAW -2.5
Total 51.5
Final San José State by 4. San José State beat the spread. 36 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Hawai'i -2.75 (open Hawai'i -4.25) · O/U 51.25 (open 52.25) · ML +124.5 / -146.5 · Hawai'i 57% no-vig · model vs market -0.4 pts, -1 pct pts (Hawai'i view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 80°F, Wind 10 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (PHNL)MW+ Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - at
Arizona State Sun Devils
3-2 · SOS #37
Loss 12-30
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Arizona State by 16.7
Total 52.7
DraftKings
ASU -20.5
Total 51.5
Final Arizona State by 18. Hawai'i beat the spread. 42 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arizona State -20.75 (open Arizona State -21.25) · O/U 51.25 (open 50.75) · ML +925 / -1775 · Arizona State 91% no-vig · model vs market -4.0 pts, -4 pct pts (Arizona State view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 75°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPHX)FS1 Mountain America Stadium - vs
New Mexico Lobos
5-1 · SOS #125
Loss 10-21
Week 7
Our number· pregame
New Mexico by 19.2
Total 52
DraftKings
UNM -14.5
Total 46.5
Final New Mexico by 11. Hawai'i beat the spread. 31 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Mexico -14.5 (open New Mexico -14.75) · O/U 46 (open 47.5) · ML -662.5 / +470 · Hawai'i 17% no-vig · model vs market -4.7 pts, -6 pct pts (Hawai'i view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 80°F, Wind 13 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (PHNL)FS1 Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - at
Northern Illinois Huskies
0-7 · SOS #58
Win 56-21
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Northern Illinois by 1.3
Total 46.3
DraftKings
HAW -3
Total 48.5
Final Hawai'i by 35. Hawai'i beat the spread. 77 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Hawai'i -3 · O/U 49.5 · ML -148 / +124 · Northern Illinois 39% no-vig · model vs market +4.3 pts, +14 pct pts (Northern Illinois view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 67°F, Wind 9 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDKB)MW+ Huskie Stadium - at
UTEP Miners
1-6 · SOS #76
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 31-20 · 78%
Our number
Hawai'i by 11
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Sun Bowl - vs
North Dakota State Bison
6-2 · SOS #123
Sun, Nov 15, 4:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 16-29 · 19%
Our number
North Dakota State by 13
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - at
Nevada Wolf Pack
3-4 · SOS #110
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 22-27 · 37%
Our number
Nevada by 5
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Mackay Stadium - vs
Sacramento State Hornets
1-7 · SOS #136
Sun, Nov 29, 4:00 AM
Week 13
Proj 34-16 · 87%
Our number
Hawai'i by 18
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
MW+ Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Times shown in your local time
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-10.7
111th in FBS
Adj. offense
20.3
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
31.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 20.8 | 117 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 24.5 | 72 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.29 | 121 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.20 | 108 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 103.9 | 137 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 269.9 | 23 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 174.5 | 97 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 200.9 | 56 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.75 | 53 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.75 | 86 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.25 | 120 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.50 | 114 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.07 | 78 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.13 | 116 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.9% | 82 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 44.1% | 105 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.1% | 114 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.7% | 88 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.2% | 113 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.3% | 99 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.56 | 109 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.43 | 115 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 27 | 117 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 26 | 26 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 70.6 | 17 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.03 | 93 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.10 | 69 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.08 | 91 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.19 | 116 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 45.9% | 52 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 39.3% | 95 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.5% | 92 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 27.7% | 108 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 32.0% | 104 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 40.0% | 82 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 39.8% | 82 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 45.7% | 131 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 71.4% | 123 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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