Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Hawai'i 29, New Mexico State 21.6 at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Hawai'i wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.4 points and 50.6 combined points.
New Mexico State is 1-1, scoring 34 and allowing 24 points per game (+10 per game). Hawai'i is 0-2, scoring 16.5 and allowing 29 points per game (-12.5 per game).
New Mexico State's struggling offense (118th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) meets Hawai'i's below-average defense (111th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points New Mexico State puts up. Hawai'i's struggling offense (122nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.3 points against an average defense) meets New Mexico State's struggling defense (123rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Hawai'i puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico State by 15 and Hawai'i by 30 about 80% of the time.
Hawai'i gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Hawai'i by about 5.3. The game is on MW+.
Result: New Mexico State 19, Hawai'i 29. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.6 points and the total by 2.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Mexico State / Hawai'i) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Hawai'i -10.75 → Hawai'i -7.5 | 51 → 50.25 | +272.5 / -354 |
| Bovada | Hawai'i -10 → Hawai'i -7.5 | 50.5 → 50 | +305 / -410 |
| DraftKings | Hawai'i -11.5 → Hawai'i -7.5 | 51.5 → 50.5 | +240 / -298 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Hawai'i win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Hawai'i -7.5 | 50.6 | 69% |
| Market consensus | Hawai'i -7.5 | 50.3 | 74% |
| Blended projection | Hawai'i -7.5 | 51.0 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Hawai'i win probability
- model 69% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Hawai'i -7.4 · market Hawai'i -7.5 · difference -0.1 pts (Hawai'i view)
- Total
- model 50.6 · market 50.25 · difference +0.4
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Mexico State 21.6, Hawai'i 29.0 | Hawai'i 69%right winner | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| New formula | New Mexico State 24.2, Hawai'i 29.6 | Hawai'i 63%right winner | 4.7 | 5.8 |
Final: New Mexico State 19, Hawai'i 29. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Mexico State vs Hawai'i: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | New Mexico State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.0#68 | 16.5#105 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0#95 | 29.0#103 |
| Yards per play | 6.76#54 | 4.11#126 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.59#85 | 6.42#107 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.0#88 | 102.5#117 |
| Net passing yards per game | 284.5#44 | 202.0#86 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.5#92 | 215.5#117 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.0#72 | 208.0#84 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#62 | 0.50#60 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#33 | 0.00#109 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#81 | 0.50#123 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#81 | 3.50#128 |
| Stat | New Mexico State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#79 | +0.01#96 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#91 | +0.09#93 |
| Success rate | 39.5%#94 | 36.7%#111 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.9%#81 | 42.6%#98 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1%#78 | 10.0%#103 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7%#108 | 13.3%#98 |
| Havoc rate | 14.2%#73 | 12.2%#94 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2%#97 | 17.1%#113 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.13#74 | 3.60#95 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.27#94 | 4.13#86 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#86 | own 24#120 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#105 | own 28#73 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.0#88 | 74.0#32 |
| Stat | New Mexico State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#67 | +0.03#78 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11#71 | -0.02#103 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#96 | +0.08#98 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09#84 | +0.08#81 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.8%#87 | 46.8%#58 |
| Passing success rate | 40.0%#89 | 30.7%#123 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6%#78 | 17.7%#80 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.0%#43 | 32.0%#72 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7%#97 | 27.0%#49 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 56.7%#32 | 42.1%#76 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.1%#109 | 46.7%#105 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.4%#89 | 45.4%#109 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.1%#86 | 77.5%#96 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Mexico State schedule · Hawai'i schedule · all Week 2 projections
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