Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northern Illinois 23.8, Hawai'i 22.5 at Huskie Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Northern Illinois wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 46.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Hawai'i is 1-6, scoring 15.7 and allowing 25 points per game (-9.3 per game). Northern Illinois is 0-6, scoring 14.2 and allowing 35.7 points per game (-21.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Hawai'i's below-average offense (117th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.3 points against an average defense) against Northern Illinois's struggling defense (134th). Hawai'i's below-average defense (102nd) should limit Northern Illinois's struggling offense (129th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Hawai'i by 21 and Northern Illinois by 24 about 80% of the time.
Northern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Hawai'i would be favoured by 0.8. The game is on MW+.
Result: Hawai'i 56, Northern Illinois 21. Hawai'i won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 36.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Hawai'i / Northern Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Hawai'i -3 | 49.5 | -148 / +124 |
| Opening line | Hawai'i -7.5 | 45.5 | -270 / +220 |
| DraftKings | Hawai'i -3 | 48.5 | -180 / +150 |
| FanDuel | Hawai'i -3.5 | 49.5 | -142 / +118 |
| BetRivers | Hawai'i -3.5 | 48.5 | -165 / +133 |
| BetMGM | Hawai'i -3 | 49.5 | -145 / +125 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northern Illinois -1.5 | 46.3 | 53% |
| Market consensus | Hawai'i -3 | 49.5 | 39% |
| Blended projection | Hawai'i -2.5 | 50.2 | 44% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Illinois win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 39% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Northern Illinois -1.3 · market Hawai'i -3 · difference +4.3 pts (Northern Illinois view)
- Total
- model 46.3 · market 49.5 · difference -3.2
Model margin is 4.3 pts more toward Northern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Hawai'i 22.5, Northern Illinois 23.8 | Northern Illinois 53%wrong winner | 36.3 | 30.7 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Hawai'i 56, Northern Illinois 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Hawai'i vs Northern Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Hawai'i | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.0#56 | 17.1#129 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1#61 | 24.3#64 |
| Yards per play | 6.04#56 | 4.78#133 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.18#106 | 5.48#45 |
| Rushing yards per game | 116.5#128 | 197.8#30 |
| Net passing yards per game | 305.2#6 | 94.1#134 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.5#53 | 191.8#113 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 223.2#78 | 170.4#7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.31#103 | 0.67#9 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.69#118 | 0.83#103 |
| Sacks per game | 2.23#48 | 1.17#124 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.23#97 | 1.50#39 |
| Stat | Hawai'i | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#77 | -0.06#118 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#74 | +0.04#91 |
| Success rate | 41.1%#90 | 36.2%#128 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7%#70 | 44.6%#109 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#72 | 9.5%#129 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6%#76 | 11.4%#43 |
| Havoc rate | 11.4%#102 | 11.0%#110 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9%#36 | 11.9%#69 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.05#57 | 3.53#117 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.73#50 | 3.74#56 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#57 | own 28#111 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#60 | own 32#123 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.8#29 | 61.1#122 |
| Stat | Hawai'i | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13#133 | +0.01#84 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#35 | -0.18#131 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#93 | +0.06#111 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#60 | +0.01#74 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.2%#117 | 38.8%#111 |
| Passing success rate | 43.5%#42 | 27.4%#136 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1%#111 | 18.3%#69 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.6%#32 | 23.9%#129 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0%#88 | 36.5%#130 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.5%#15 | 32.2%#132 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.2%#52 | 44.1%#107 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.4%#77 | 48.2%#124 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.2%#62 | 61.9%#79 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Hawai'i schedule · Northern Illinois schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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