Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Hawai'i 26.8, San José State 24.5 at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Hawai'i wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 51.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
San José State is 2-2, scoring 23.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (-4 per game). Hawai'i is 1-3, scoring 18 and allowing 26 points per game (-8 per game).
San José State's struggling offense (118th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.1 points against an average defense) meets Hawai'i's struggling defense (123rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points San José State puts up. Hawai'i's struggling offense (128th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.6 points against an average defense) meets San José State's struggling defense (124th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Hawai'i puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San José State by 20 and Hawai'i by 25 about 80% of the time.
Hawai'i gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Hawai'i by about 0.2. The game is on MW+.
Result: San José State 20, Hawai'i 16. San José State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 6.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (San José State / Hawai'i) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Hawai'i -4.25 → Hawai'i -2.75 | 52.25 → 51.25 | +124.5 / -146.5 |
| Bovada | Hawai'i -3 | 52 → 51 | +125 / -145 |
| DraftKings | Hawai'i -5.5 → Hawai'i -2.5 | 52.5 → 51.5 | +124 / -148 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Hawai'i win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Hawai'i -2.5 | 51.2 | 56% |
| Market consensus | Hawai'i -3 | 51.3 | 57% |
| Blended projection | Hawai'i -2.5 | 51.9 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Hawai'i win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 57% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Hawai'i -2.3 · market Hawai'i -2.75 · difference -0.5 pts (Hawai'i view)
- Total
- model 51.2 · market 51.25 · difference 0.0
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward San José State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San José State 24.5, Hawai'i 26.8 | Hawai'i 56%wrong winner | 6.3 | 15.2 |
| New formula | San José State 25.8, Hawai'i 25.9 | Hawai'i 50%wrong winner | 4.1 | 15.6 |
Final: San José State 20, Hawai'i 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San José State vs Hawai'i: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | San José State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.3#105 | 18.0#129 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3#103 | 26.0#97 |
| Yards per play | 5.69#102 | 4.72#135 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.34#66 | 6.54#123 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.8#100 | 101.5#137 |
| Net passing yards per game | 245.3#54 | 238.5#60 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 143.3#66 | 196.3#120 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 230.8#97 | 220.8#88 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#123 | 0.25#19 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#72 | 0.50#118 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#86 | 1.25#113 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#82 | 2.75#122 |
| Stat | San José State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04#122 | +0.04#95 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#60 | +0.12#107 |
| Success rate | 36.7%#127 | 38.9%#116 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0%#85 | 45.9%#120 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1%#73 | 9.7%#127 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.0%#34 | 14.4%#118 |
| Havoc rate | 13.6%#83 | 12.3%#105 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#109 | 14.5%#96 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.92#88 | 3.43#119 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.86#76 | 4.52#116 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#109 | own 26#124 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#118 | own 25#19 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.8#37 | 72.0#15 |
| Stat | San José State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09#127 | +0.04#90 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#100 | +0.04#88 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#86 | +0.14#117 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#50 | +0.10#91 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.2%#124 | 42.4%#92 |
| Passing success rate | 39.1%#97 | 37.8%#110 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.8%#107 | 18.7%#96 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.9%#113 | 28.4%#97 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.2%#56 | 29.5%#72 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.5%#114 | 39.4%#90 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0%#87 | 48.1%#131 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.2%#78 | 43.0%#131 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.7%#116 | 75.9%#119 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San José State schedule · Hawai'i schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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