Matchup analysis
Our model projects Hawai'i 31, UTEP 20 at Sun Bowl in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Hawai'i wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.5 points and 51.3 combined points.
Hawai'i is 2-6 against the 100th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.8 and allowing 24.5 points per game (-3.7 per game). UTEP is 1-6 against the 76th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.1 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-22.2 per game).
Hawai'i's below-average offense (117th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UTEP's struggling defense (138th); that mismatch is where most of Hawai'i's projected points come from. Expect UTEP to find it hard going: Hawai'i's below-average defense (102nd) outranks UTEP's struggling offense (138th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 13.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Hawai'i by 34 and UTEP by 11 about 80% of the time.
UTEP gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Hawai'i is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FS1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Hawai'i vs UTEP: stat comparison
| Stat | Hawai'i | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.8#117 | 15.1#136 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.5#72 | 37.3#134 |
| Yards per play | 5.29#121 | 5.41#118 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.20#108 | 6.48#122 |
| Rushing yards per game | 103.9#137 | 164.4#77 |
| Net passing yards per game | 269.9#23 | 149.4#129 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 174.5#97 | 201.7#124 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.9#56 | 202.6#60 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#53 | 1.14#109 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#86 | 0.86#80 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25#120 | 1.14#128 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#114 | 5.00#138 |
| Stat | Hawai'i | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#78 | -0.11#137 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#116 | +0.17#122 |
| Success rate | 41.9%#82 | 35.2%#135 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1%#105 | 49.1%#134 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#114 | 11.5%#102 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7%#88 | 13.9%#115 |
| Havoc rate | 12.2%#113 | 11.1%#129 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3%#99 | 18.5%#137 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.56#109 | 2.85#136 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.43#115 | 4.63#123 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#117 | own 29#89 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#26 | own 31#119 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.6#17 | 58.0#132 |
| Stat | Hawai'i | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#93 | +0.01#105 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#69 | -0.23#137 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#91 | +0.09#100 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19#116 | +0.26#127 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.9%#52 | 37.8%#119 |
| Passing success rate | 39.3%#95 | 31.0%#135 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5%#92 | 19.5%#106 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#108 | 23.0%#133 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.0%#104 | 36.9%#126 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#82 | 25.8%#138 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8%#82 | 49.4%#131 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.7%#131 | 47.5%#127 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.4%#123 | 61.7%#82 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Hawai'i schedule · UTEP schedule · all Week 10 projections
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