2026 schedule

UTEP Miners

1-6SOS #76

2026 season so far

UTEP is 1-6 against the 76th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.1 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-22.2 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings UTEP ranks 138th of 139 FBS teams overall — 138th on offense and 138th on defense. Both units rate about the same.

Next up: at North Dakota State in Week 9. We project UTEP 6, North Dakota State 39 — UTEP wins 2% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
#10 Oklahoma Sooners
1-0 · SOS #9
Loss 0-51
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Oklahoma by 18.9
Total 49.5
DraftKings
OU -40.5
Total 51.5
Final Oklahoma by 51. Oklahoma beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oklahoma -40.75 (open Oklahoma -40.5) · O/U 51.25 (open 50.5) · model vs market -21.8 pts (Oklahoma view)
SECN+ Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
Texas Southern Tigers
1-2 · SOS #138
Win 51-10
Week 2
Our number· pregame
UTEP by 29.7
Total 52.9
DraftKings
UTEP -27.5
Total 53.5
Final UTEP by 41. UTEP beat the spread. 61 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTEP -27.25 (open UTEP -25.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 52.75) · ML +1450 / -4250 · UTEP 94% no-vig · model vs market +2.4 pts, +4 pct pts (UTEP view)
MW+ Sun Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
#19 Michigan Wolverines
3-0 · SOS #15
Loss 17-52
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Michigan by 11.7
Total 44.9
DraftKings
MICH -34.5
Total 48.5
Final Michigan by 35. Michigan beat the spread. 69 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan -34.5 (open Michigan -36.75) · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · model vs market -22.8 pts (Michigan view)
BTN Michigan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14 Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
vs
Oregon State Beavers
2-2 · SOS #86
Loss 7-33
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Oregon State by 8
Total 58.2
DraftKings
ORST -11.5
Total 56.5
Final Oregon State by 26. Oregon State beat the spread. 40 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -11.5 (open Oregon State -11.75) · O/U 56.5 (open 54.75) · ML -472.5 / +352.5 · UTEP 21% no-vig · model vs market +3.5 pts, +9 pct pts (UTEP view)
Game-time weather: 79°F, Wind 3 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KELP)
MW+ Sun Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · T. Jones RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 54) · 77% · 34 ✓J. Legree WR · Low rec yds 97 (avg 159) · 78% · 109 ✓A. Newberry RB · Low rec yds 29 (avg 42) · 74% · 6 ✓
at
New Mexico Lobos
4-1 · SOS #129
Loss 7-61
Week 5
Our number· pregame
New Mexico by 26.4
Total 55.8
DraftKings
UNM -23.5
Total 47.5
Final New Mexico by 54. New Mexico beat the spread. 68 points — over the 47.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Mexico -23.25 (open New Mexico -21.75) · O/U 47.75 (open 51) · ML +1075 / -2200 · New Mexico 92% no-vig · model vs market +3.2 pts, +4 pct pts (New Mexico view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABQ)
MW+ University Stadium (NM)
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Jones RB · Low rush yds 42 (avg 49) · 78% · did not playElite 93-27 (typical 60%) · E. Colson Jr. QB · Low rush yds 18 (avg 17) · 78% · 24 ✗S. Humphrey RB · TD threat 76% · 1 ✓
vs
Nevada Wolf Pack
2-3 · SOS #112
Loss 13-30
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Nevada by 8.7
Total 53.7
DraftKings
NEV -10
Total 48.5
Final Nevada by 17. Nevada beat the spread. 43 points — under the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Nevada -10 (open Nevada -9.25) · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · ML -367.5 / +287.5 · UTEP 25% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, +4 pct pts (UTEP view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 82°F, Wind 11 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KELP)
FS1 Sun Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
Elite 114-37 (typical 60%) · E. Colson Jr. QB · Low rush yds 27 (avg 19) · 75% · did not playElite 114-37 (typical 60%) · R. Moore III QB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 59) · 75% · 65 ✗
vs
San José State Spartans
4-3 · SOS #121
Loss 11-24
Week 7
Our number· pregame
San José State by 8.2
Total 51.8
DraftKings
SJSU -6.5
Total 46.5
Final San José State by 13. San José State beat the spread. 35 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San José State -6.75 (open San José State -9.5) · O/U 46 (open 51.25) · ML -315 / +250 · UTEP 28% no-vig · model vs market -1.4 pts, +2 pct pts (UTEP view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 59°F, Wind 8 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KELP)
MW+ Sun Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
Bounce-back dog vs weak-offense fav underStudy · Moderate Under: Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: Record 273 hits, 188 misses (59% hit rate) over 461 graded gamesFavorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: hit (n=461) · Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: missed (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded gamesOur margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: hit (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank TD-shy dog vs sloppy fav under2026 combo · Held up Under: Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnderdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
at
North Dakota State Bison
6-2 · SOS #123
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 6-39 · 2%
Our number
North Dakota State by 33
Total 45
DraftKings
NDSU -25.5
Total 43.5
We're 7.5 points higher on North Dakota State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -25.5 · O/U 43.5 · ML +1420 / -3253 · North Dakota State 93% no-vig · model vs market +7.5 pts, +5 pct pts (North Dakota State view)
Indoors (dome).
MW+ Fargodome
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded games (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14 Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · E. Colson Jr. QB · Low rush yds 18 (avg 18) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · R. Moore III QB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 59) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Jones RB · Low rush yds 39 (avg 44) · 78%
vs
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
2-6 · SOS #100
Sun, Nov 8, 2:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 20-31 · 23%
Our number
Hawai'i by 11
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
FS1 Sun Bowl
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · T. Jones RB · Low rush yds 51 (avg 44) · 77%
vs
Wyoming Cowboys
5-3 · SOS #130
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 15-27 · 21%
Our number
Wyoming by 12
Total 42
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Sun Bowl
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · T. Jones RB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 44) · 77%K. Thomas RB · Low rec yds 31 (avg 45) · 74%
at
Air Force Falcons
5-2 · SOS #105
Sat, Nov 21, 1:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 15-39 · 5%
Our number
Air Force by 24
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW Falcon Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · T. Jones RB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 44) · 77%K. Thomas RB · Low rec yds 33 (avg 45) · 72%
at
Northern Illinois Huskies
0-7 · SOS #59
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 23-30 · 33%
Our number
Northern Illinois by 7
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
MW+ Huskie Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
T. Dickens QB · High pass yds 208 (avg 195) · 54%

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UTEP Miners stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-25.4

137th in FBS

Adj. offense

13.6

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

39.0

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	15.1	136 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	37.3	134 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.41	118 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.48	122 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	164.4	77 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	149.4	129 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	201.7	124 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	202.6	60 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.14	109 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.86	80 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.14	128 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	5.00	138 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	-0.11	137 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.17	122 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	35.2%	135 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	49.1%	134 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	11.5%	102 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	13.9%	115 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	11.1%	129 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	18.5%	137 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	2.85	136 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.63	123 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 29	89 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 31	119 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	58.0	132 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.01	105 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.23	137 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.09	100 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.26	127 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	37.8%	119 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	31.0%	135 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	19.5%	106 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	23.0%	133 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	36.9%	126 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	25.8%	138 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	49.4%	131 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	47.5%	127 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	61.7%	82 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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